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Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Bills (Week 8)

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The Buffalo Bills have lost two of three with their only win a 14-9 victory over the New York Giants. Their defensive injuries have been well-documented, but their offense has struggled in recent weeks. They've scored just 10 points in the first half of their last three games combined. On Thursday, they'll host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that has lost three of four and scored less than 14 points in each of their three losses. 

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills.

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Bills -8.5 (-110 DraftKings)

The Bills have problems right now, but so do the Buccaneers. Offensively, they've been a disaster over the last two weeks, scoring a combined 19 points. They're tied for 26th in the league in points per game, averaging just 17.2.

Though the Bills' defense is beat up and just allowed 29 points to the New England Patriots, they've been holding their own against bad offenses. They allowed just nine points to the Giants, and they did turn the Jacksonville Jaguars over twice two weeks ago.

This game is going to come down to Josh Allen and the offense. They've been sleepwalking the last few weeks, but this is a good matchup. Last week, the Atlanta Falcons were just 1-5 in the red zone against the Bucs. It wasn't a good defense that prevented scoring; it was bad offense. If the Bills can figure out what's been wrong over the past few weeks, they should win this one running away. They'll certainly have enough opportunities.

Under 43 (-112 DraftKings)

No matter who the Bucs play, their offense is not good. The Bucs have scored more than 20 points just twice this season, and in one of those games, they went over 20 because of a defensive touchdown.

If the Bills were operating how they were earlier this season, we'd probably take this over because they can easily score 30+ points against this Bucs' defense. But their offense is averaging fewer than 20 points per game over the last three weeks, and it would be even lower if not for a terrible New England Patriots' turnover in last week's fourth quarter.

The Bills are bad against the run, but the Bucs' have the fourth-worst rush offense in football. Without being able to take advantage of the Bills' weakness, we struggle to see a scenario where the Bucs score more than 14 points in this game.

Rachaad White Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110 bet365)

White is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season. He has gone over 40 rushing yards in just two games this season, and the Bucs won both of those contests.

White has been much more useful for the Bucs in the passing game, which is where we expect to see him excel again on Thursday. This season, he has 23 catches for 163 yards, as screens and dump-offs have essentially replaced the Bucs running game.

Finally, if the Bills lead for this entire game, then White is going to struggle to get carries. He's run the ball 15 or more times in three games. All three of those performances came in wins. His season-long rush is just 13 yards, so you don't even need to worry about him breaking one and cheaply hitting this over.

Stefon Diggs Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-110 bet365)

Diggs has gone for 100 yards in five of his seven games this season. This past weekend, he managed just six grabs for 58 yards against the Patriots. We'll chalk that up to Bill Belichick and his coaching staff knowing how to gamelan for the Bills' offense because they see them so much.

Though the Bills' offense has struggled, Diggs has continued to put together solid performances. He has at least six catches in every game this season, and he has been targeted at least 11 times in five games.

The Bucs are allowing 262.5 passing yards per game. Last week, Desmond Ridder was 19-25 for 250 yards, and the week before, Jared Goff was 30-44 for 353 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a big game from Josh Allen, which means his top target is going to have a big day as well.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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