Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Chargers vs. Raiders (Week 15)

by Phil Wood |
Dec 14, 2023

The Los Angeles Chargersâ€™ disappointing 2023 season took another hit when Justin Herbert broke his finger last week, likely ending his season. This week, they'll turn to Easton Stick as they travel to take on the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams are 5-8, and the loser of Thursday night's game will essentially be eliminated from playoff contention.

Here are our best bets and predictions for the â€œThursday Night Footballâ€ matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders.

Week 14 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

All bets are for one unit.

Under 34.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Without really knowing what to expect from Stick this week, it's hard to pick either team against the spread confidently. Meanwhile, the Raiders have not decided whether Aidan O'Connell or Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start Thursday night. No matter who starts for the Raiders, it's hard to imagine either of these teams scoring more than 20 points in this game.

The Raiders haven't scored 20 or more since Week 9, and the Chargers have scored 23 combined points in their last three games. Neither defense is playing poorly, but neither team can pick up wins because of how awful their offenses have been. Nothing about the personnel these teams put on the field Thursday suggests that should change.

Austin Ekeler Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (+105 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Austin Ekeler has run the ball exactly 10 times in three of his last four games. In the seven other games in which he hasn't run the ball exactly 10 times, he's run it at least 14. With that in mind, it's surprising to see this number so low, especially with Stick at quarterback.

The Raiders have the eighth-worst rush defense in football. If the Chargers want to take pressure off of their young quarterback, the best way to do that is by giving the ball to their best player and letting him try to take advantage of a favorable matchup. We'd take this up to 15.5, so to get this at 13.5 for +105 is incredible.

Davante Adams Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via bet365)

Earlier this season, Davante Adams caught eight passes for 75 yards against the Chargers. That performance came with Aidan O'Connell under center. Adams has gone for at least 73 yards in three of his last four games. Last week, he managed just 53 yards, but he did catch seven passes.

If Jimmy Garoppolo starts, Adams will still be the Raiders' primary target. Though the Chargers' defense is playing well of late, Adams is the type of player who will be a primary target even if he's double-covered. He has at least seven targets in each of his last seven games. If he gets that many targets on Thursday, he'll catch enough passes to exploit a defense allowing 10.7 yards per completion this season.

Easton Stick Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-110 via bet365)

Last week, Stick entered the game against the Denver Broncos and threw for 179 yards. It was a really impressive performance, considering how well the Denver defense has been playing and that Herbert managed just 96 yards. However, bettors shouldnâ€™t put much faith in Stick.

The Raiders have the 10th-best pass defense in football. They're allowing just 207.7 passing yards per game. There is no reason to put pressure on Stick this week, especially since he won't be entering the game with his team already facing a deficit. With Keenan Allen banged up entering Thursday, he could also be without his top target. Everything points to Stick throwing for fewer than 200 yards on Thursday.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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