Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Jaguars vs. Saints (Week 7)

by Phil Wood |
Oct 19, 2023

Trevor Lawrence is questionable for tonight's game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints. However, everything he's said indicates he will be playing. If he does, will he be able to lead his team to a fourth consecutive victory against a defense allowing just 16.0 points per game? Here are our best bets and predictions for Thursday Night Football.

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Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football (Week 7)

Under 40 (-110 DraftKings)

This season, every single Saints' game has gone under 40 points. The defense is allowing just 16 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL. Although their success has come almost entirely against the worst offenses in football - the best they've played is the Green Bay Packers who are ranked 13th in points per game - their numbers are still impressive.

But we like this under even more because of how bad the Saints' offense has been. They're averaging just 18.2 points per game, and they have scored 17 or fewer in four of their six games.

The Jaguars have scored 23 or more points in three consecutive games, but they have gone against weak or beat-up defenses. Even if they get into the low 20s tonight, their defense is good enough to essentially shut down a really bad offense.

Jaguars -6.5 (+234 DraftKings)

*alternative line*

The Saints are favored on Thursday Night Football, primarily because of their defense and the unknown surrounding Lawrence. But not only do we think the Jaguars are going to win, we think they're going to win comfortably.

The Jaguars have won three in a row, and their average margin of victory during that span is nearly 13 points. Lawrence's health and a road game on a short week are all causes for concern. But simply put, the Jaguars are the better team in this matchup.

There isn't much value to just taking the Jaguarsâ€™ moneyline, though it is certainly the play we would make. But for more value, take the Jaguars to win by at least a touchdown just like they have done in three of their four victories this season.

Travis Etienne Jr. Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-105 DraftKings)

The Saints have only allowed one 60-yard rusher this season, and that came all the way back in Week 1 when Derrick Henry ran for 63 yards.

There are a few reasons this number may be high. One is that if Lawrence doesn't play, more emphasis will naturally fall on the running game. Another is that Etienne doesn't have to split time with anyone in the backfield, so that gives him more opportunities.

However, he's only topped 64 yards three times this season. Etienne has run the ball at least 18 times in his last four games, yet in two of those games, he averaged just 3.1 or fewer yards per carry. The Saints are 14th in the league, allowing 3.9 rushing yards per attempt. Even if Etienne carries the ball 20 times, there's no guarantee he hits this number.

Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions (+100 DraftKings)

In three games, Kamara has 23 receptions. He has gone over 4.5 receptions in two games, including last week when he hauled in seven passes for 36 yards. Kamara has seen 25 targets since returning from his suspension, which is the most on the team during that span, and the fourth-most on the team this season.

The Jaguars' pass defense is really bad. They have been allowing 281.2 passing yards per game, which is 31st in the league. But the Saints have faced other bad pass defenses this season, and they're still averaging fewer than 200 yards through the air per game.

The Saints' receivers should have big games tonight. But that won't take away from Kamara who will be a necessary check-down option for Derek Carr throughout the game. At +100, there is great value in this play.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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