Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Packers (Week 4)

by Phil Wood |
Sep 28, 2023

The Detroit Lions travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers in a key NFC North matchup. Here are our best bets and predictions for Thursday Night Football.

Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Packers

Detroit Lions -1 (-110 Caesars)

The Lions have beaten the Packers three straight times. While every game was decided by one score, Aaron Rodgers was under center for the Packers in those meetings.

The Packers should get Aaron Jones back this week, and it seems as though Christian Watson is also trending toward playing. While that will be good for Jordan Love and the Packers' offense, we don't think these players are good enough to offset the Lionsâ€™ advantages.

The Lions are allowing just 72.0 yards rushing per game this season, and they held one of the best rushing attacks in football to 44 yards last week. The Packers are only averaging 308.7 yards of total offense this year. The key to this game will be the Lions taking care of the football. Though Jared Goff has thrown an interception in back-to-back games, we know how good he can be with ball security. If he starts to look like Goff, who went nearly 400 passes without an interception, the Packers have very little chance of winning this game.

Jordan Love Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

Love has thrown for 245 or more yards in two of his three games. Last week, his numbers were not good, but he exploded in the fourth quarter to help lead his team to victory after being down 17-0.

If Watson and Jones are both in the lineup, then Love has his full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. When he had that in Week 1, he threw for 245 yards.

Because of how good the Lions' run defense is, there is going to be a lot more pressure on Love to make necessary plays in this game. Only Geno Smith has topped this number against the Lions, but the Chiefs' drop and Desmond Ridder's inability to throw the ball have both been well-documented.

Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.75 Sacks (+150 DraftKings)

Hutchinson sacked Ridder twice last week, as the Lions compiled seven sacks in the game. It was an impressive performance from a unit that had just one combined sack through two weeks.

Love has done a good job avoiding sacks, but he has been taken down once in every game he has played this season. The Lions' defense plays in a way that forces dropbacks. Hutchinson looked like a force in the first two weeks, even though he wasn't actually recording sacks. With a young quarterback being asked to do a lot, we like this price for Hutchinson to record his third sack of the season.

Lions Over 23.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)

The Lions have scored more than 23 points just once this season. The Packers' defense has allowed more than 23 just once. So, what gives this week?

The offenses that the Packers have faced are ranked 23rd, 25th, and 27th in the league in points per game thus far. Meanwhile, the Lions are tied for the 12th-most points per game this season.

You may be tempted to just take the over for this game. However, there are too many question marks surrounding the Packers' offense. How much will Jones and Watson play? Will Love be able to score without them? Remember, their 18 points last week all came in the final 15 minutes of the game.

Instead, just go with the Lions' offense. The Packers' defense hasn't been tested this season. If they hold the Lions to under 23.5, they'll probably win the game, and perhaps it will be time to start taking them seriously.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Lions vs. Packers (Week 4)