Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Panthers vs. Bears (Week 10)

by Phil Wood |
Nov 09, 2023

This week's Thursday Night Football matchup is between two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears enter Week 10 with a combined 3-14 record. Last week, the Panthers fell 27-13 to the Indianapolis Colts in large part because of Bryce Young's three interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns. Bears' quarterback Tyson Bagent has thrown five interceptions in his last two games.

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the Chicago Bears.

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Week 10 NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets

All wagers are one unit.

Panthers +3.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Bagent is back under center for the Bears, and he's going to have a really hard time against this Panthers' defense. Despite being tied for the most points per game allowed this season, the Panthers are allowing just 178.3 passing yards per game, which is fifth-best in the NFL, and they're ranked eighth in total yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, the Bears' are ranked 19th in total yards allowed per game, and they have the fifth-worst passing defense in the NFL. The Bears are phenomenal against the run, so Young will be called upon to make big throws if his team is going to stay close in this game. With Young and Bagent both throwing, this game ultimately comes down to one thing: turnovers.

The Bears are averaging 2.0 turnovers per game, and in the last three games with Bagent under center, they're averaging 2.3 per contest. The Panthers turn the ball over a lot as well, and their defense has had a harder time of late keeping teams off the scoreboard after turnovers. However, you have to take a team getting more than a field goal when their opponent is almost guaranteed to turn the ball over twice

Miles Sanders Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at Bet365)

Entering Week 10, Chuba Hubbard is the number one running back for the Panthers. Over the past three weeks, he's carried the ball at least 15 times in each game, accumulating 50 carries. During that same stretch, Sanders has just 15 carries.

Sanders' yards per carry is significantly better than that of Hubbard. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry last week and 4.6 per carry three weeks ago. However, the Bears allow just 3.3 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the NFL. With limited carries on Thursday, Sanders won't be able to break off chunk plays against a really good run defense.

Adam Thielen Over 6.5 Receptions (+100 at DraftKings)

Thielen has seven or more receptions in six of eight games. He's coming off a five-catch 29-yard performance, which is the only reason this price is so good for the over.

Thielen has four games of 11 or more targets this season. While those targets don't always turn into high production from a yardage perspective, they almost always turn into a significant amount of catches. He's the safety net for Young, as he is averaging just 9.8 yards per catch this season.

The Bears are allowing 25.7 completions per game, which is sixth-most in the NFL. Young has attempted at least 31 passes in every game this season, and he's completed at least 22 passes in every game since Week 2. If the passing offense has as much success as is expected based on stats, Thielen is going to record seven grabs or more for the seventh time this year.

Tyson Bagent and Bryce Young to Throw an Interception (+200 at DraftKings)

The price for each of these players to individually throw an interception is pretty expensive. At the moment, Bagent is -140 and Young is -135. We're more confident in Bagent throwing an interception than Young, so if you're not comfortable parlaying, we'd wager on the Bears' quarterback.

However, a price of +200 for each of these quarterbacks to throw an interception provides great value. Bagent has thrown six interceptions in four appearances, including five in his last two games. He's thrown the ball at least 29 times in each of his starts, which should continue this week, even as the Bears' defense gets healthier.

Young is coming off the worst game of his career. He threw for just 173 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. It was his first game under 200 yards since Week 2. While Young has seven interceptions on the year, he's only thrown a pick in three of his seven games. Still, the Bears are also averaging one interception per game over their last three games.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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