Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Steelers (Week 14)

by Phil Wood |
Dec 07, 2023

Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair as two backup quarterbacks meet in Week 14's â€œThursday Night Footballâ€ matchup. The total is set at a season-low 30 points, with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by six. No team has scored more than 10 points in a Patriots game over the last three weeks. Is there any reason to think that will change on Thursday?

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday night contest between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Week 14 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

All bets are one unit.

Under 30 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

There are two reasons this number isn't lower. First, the NFL rarely has lines any lower than 30, and second, weather is not expected to influence this game. However, with the two teams stepping on the field, the under is the right play.

The last three Patriots' games have seen a combined 39 points. The Patriots have not scored more than seven since they played the Washington Commanders in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Steelers' offensive issues have been well-documented. They've scored 10 points in two of their last three games and haven't scored 20 or more since Week 10.

Patriots +6 (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you expect the under to hit in a game with this low of a total, you must take the underdog if they're getting more than three points. The Steelers are 7-5 but have looked much worse than their record this season. With Mitch Trubisky under center, there is no reason to think they will be the first team to score over 10 against the Patriots since Washington on Nov. 5.

It's hard to trust the Patriots with Bailey Zappe starting. However, he did play a relatively clean game last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Neither one of these teams will be able to finish drives, and even when their defenses give them great field position, they will struggle to get into field goal range. Take the points, and don't be surprised if the Patriots win this game outright.

Pat Freiermuth Under 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via bet365)

Two weeks ago, Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards. Last week, he caught three for 29. Going against a 2-10 team, you may think he should perform just as well, if not better, this week.

However, the Patriots allow the fifth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season. Tight ends have managed just 454 yards against them, an average of 37.8 yards per game. With Trubisky at quarterback, the Steelers should be looking to run the ball more in this game. When they do pass, Freiermuth will have to fight with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson for targets.

Freiermuth has appeared in just seven games this season. He finished four of those with single-digit receiving yards. He should only be trusted in a favorable matchup, and he does not have one on Thursday night.

Mitch Trubisky Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+175 via bet365)

Even if the Steelers blow the Patriots out in this game, Trubisky is unlikely to throw a touchdown pass. The Patriots are fourth-best in the league in touchdown passes allowed this season. They're allowing an average of just 1.1 per game.

Trubisky has thrown two touchdowns in three appearances this season, but the Steelers only have eight passing touchdowns as a team. In a game that is expected to have minimal scoring, there is no reason to pay a hefty price for Trubisky to go over his passing touchdowns prop. With the price offered by bet365, this may be the most valuable bet of the game.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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