Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Saints vs. Rams (Week 16)

by Phil Wood |
Dec 21, 2023

One of the most important games of Week 16 will be played Thursday night, as the Los Angeles Rams host the New Orleans Saints. Both teams are 7-7, with the Rams currently clinging to the final NFC playoff spot and the Saints sitting in ninth place. Who will get the win this week, and what props offer the best value?

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams.

Week 16 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

All bets are for one unit.

Rams -4 (-110 via BetMGM)

The Rams are playing excellent football of late. They've won four of their past five games and their only loss was a 37-31 overtime defeat on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. Two of their past three wins have been by at least 17 points, and although the final score of this past week's win over the Washington Commanders was just 28-20, they led 28-7 at one point.

Meanwhile, the Saints have picked up back-to-back blowout wins over the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants. Both of those wins came at home, and you'd have to go back to Week 8 to find the Saintsâ€™ last road win. The Saints are 1-5 against teams that are .500 or better this season. All five of their losses were by at least five points. Back the Rams, as they move one step closer to a postseason berth.

Kyren Williams Over 19.5 rushing attempts (+100 DraftKings)

Christian McCaffrey may be the only running back who can claim he's been more impressive than Williams over the past four weeks. During that stretch, Williams has rushed for 114 or more yards three times, and his lowest output is 88 yards. Because of how well he's been running the ball, his rushing total is set at 88.5 yards or higher at most major sportsbooks.

While that is a high number even against a defense that's allowing over 126 rushing yards per game, the real issue is the price. Every sportsbook except Bet365, which is asking -110, is asking at least -114 for the Over. That's just too expensive for such a high number.

Therefore, we recommend taking Williams to run the ball at least 20 times. He's rushed at least 20 times in four of his last five games, compiling 73 rushing attempts in his past three games. If the Rams can get out to a lead like many expect them to, Williams will have no problem clearing this number. And at such a good price, there's no reason not to take this.

Puka Nacua Under 5.5 receptions (-130 DraftKings)

This number is likely going to drop to 4.5 before kickoff. While we wouldn't make a play on that number, if you can get in at 5.5 receptions, we recommend the under for a price of -140 or less.

Nacua hasn't caught more than five passes since Week 7 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since then, he's had multiple receptions in every game, but he's averaging just over four per contest.

Nacua has caught five passes in each of his past two games. While that consistency is something to be happy about, nothing about Thursday night's game suggests he will top that number. The Saints' run defense is their weakness, and the Rams have shown they're willing to run the ball down a defense's throat when they have the chance. Nacua simply won't have enough opportunities, as the Rams throw the ball very little in the win.

Derek Carr Over 224.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)

Every major sportsbook has this total listed at 229.5 except for FanDuel. While Bet365 is offering a price of -110 for over 229.5, we recommend taking the lower number, because Carr has been far from automatic when it comes to throwing for at least 225 yards.

Over the past two weeks, Carr has thrown for a total of 337 yards. Going back to the beginning of November, Carr has thrown for 226 or more yards in just two of his six games.

The Rams are allowing 226.1 passing yards per game. That's 21st in the NFL. With the Rams favored, it's safe to assume that Carr is going to need to throw the ball for the majority of this game. Though he hasn't thrown the ball more than 30 times in three weeks, with the season hanging in the balance, the Saints can't afford to get cute. Carr will take advantage of a mediocre secondary and put up his best performance of the month.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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