Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Seahawks vs. Cowboys (Week 13)

by Phil Wood |
Nov 30, 2023

The Seattle Seahawks have lost two in a row and three out of four, as they've dropped to just 6-5 on the season. This week, they'll play the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has won three in a row by an average of 30 points per game. The Cowboys have the top-ranked scoring offense and the fourth-ranked scoring defense in the NFL. Are they in line for their fourth consecutive dominant win?

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys.

Week 13 Thursday Night Football Best Bets

All bets are one unit.

Cowboys -9 (-105 via FanDuel)

The Cowboys have won five of their last six games, with their only loss coming against the Philadelphia Eagles. While none of their five wins during that stretch have come over a team with a record above .500, the Cowboys' dominance should not be understated.

Each of their last four wins have been by at least 23 points, as they have scored at least 43 points in three of their last five games. The defense has allowed more than 20 points just three times all season, and with how the Seahawks' offense is currently playing, it's hard to imagine them having much success on Thursday.

Geno Smith was just 18-27 for 180 yards and one interception last week. This week, he faces a Cowboys' defense that is allowing 45 fewer passing yards per game than the 49ers. If the Seahawks weren't above .500, this spread would be double-digits. Don't worry about the records, just look at how both teams have played of late.

Cowboys Over 30.5 Points (+120 via DraftKings)

The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points in six of their 11 games. Over the past three weeks, they're averaging 42.3 points per game. The Seahawks have a better defense than the Cowboys' recent opponents, but that doesn't mean it's very good.

Last week, the 49ers scored 31 points against the Seahawks. Over the last four weeks, the Seahawks have allowed at least 31 twice, bringing the team's average points allowed per game to 22.6.

The Seahawks don't defend the run or the pass particularly well, ranking 21st and 22nd in the NFL, respectively. Additionally, the Cowboys have the fifth-best turnover margin in the league. The Seahawks are tied for 12th on the season, but they rank 16th in their last three games. If the Seahawks score enough to make this a shootout, the Cowboys will go over 30. If they don't score much at all, the Cowboys will still score over 30 in a blowout win.

Dak Prescott 300+ Passing Yards (+160 via Bet365)

Prescott has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last five games. The only time he didn't was when the Cowboys defeated the Carolina Panthers 33-10. While that may be alarming, considering the Panthers are 1-10, they actually have the fifth-best pass defense in the NFL.

The Seahawks are allowing 230.7 passing yards per game this season. With all of his offensive weapons healthy, the only way Prescott won't hit this is if Tony Pollard takes advantage of the Seahawks' weak run defense. But the Cowboys are averaging the fourth-most passing yards per game this season. At this price, this is a must-play.

Zach Charbonnet Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via Bet365)

Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 17.7 completions and 29.5 attempts per game against the Cowboys. Therefore, it's hard to trust any of the Seahawks' wide receivers, especially considering they've all taken turns having big games throughout the year.

However, we do like Charbonnet to go over 17.5 receiving yards in this game. Last week, with Kenneth Walker III out, Charbonnet caught all four of his targets. Though he only netted 11 yards, it was the third consecutive game in which he had at least four catches.

Walker III may be out again on Thursday night, and if he is, then Charbonnet is in line for plenty of targets, as the Seahawks' receivers struggle to get open faster than the pass rush gets to Smith. Yet even if Walker III plays, Charbonnet will get his fair share of targets, as screens may be the only way the Seahawks can beat the aggression of the Cowboys.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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