Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Titans vs. Steelers (Week 9)

by Phil Wood |
Nov 02, 2023

Will Levis will start his second NFL game on Thursday night. In his debut, he led the Tennessee Titans to victory over the Atlanta Falcons by throwing for 238 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend. Kenny Pickett only played one half because of an injury, and he is a game-time decision Thursday night.

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football

Over 36.5 (-110 FanDuel)

Pickett is hobbled, Levis is making just the second start of his career, and yet, we're still backing the over in this game. While both offenses have certainly struggled throughout this season, the defenses have been a serious problem as well.

While both teams are allowing 21 or fewer points per game, they're each also allowing over 360 total yards per contest. The fact that teams are struggling to score more shows how good these defenses are in the red zone, but we can't trust this low of an under when the ball is going to be inside the 20 plenty for both teams.

Also, the Steelers are forcing 2.1 turnovers per game. We've seen this defense score touchdowns numerous times this season. Against a rookie quarterback, they could give their offense plenty of short fields, or they could just score themselves.

George Pickens Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110 bet365)

If it wasn't for his third-quarter touchdown, Pickens may have ended up hitting waiver wires in most fantasy football leagues this week. He finished the game against the Jaguars with just one catch for 22 yards. Meanwhile, Donate Johnson finished the game with eight catches for 85 yards.

Johnson's return is a problem for Pickens, as Pickett now has another consistent receiving option. But we're not ready to write off Pickens just yet. He still ended Sunday's game with five targets, and two weeks ago, he led the team in receiving yards and targets.

The Titans' have the 20th-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Steelers have struggled to run the ball this season. In a game where Pickett or Mitch Trubisky will be throwing plenty, expect Pickens to have a bounce-back game.

Derrick Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115 bet365)

Henry's season is finally taking off after the last month. In his first three games, he managed just 163 rushing yards, and his most in a game was 80. Over the last four weeks, he's rushed for at least 97 yards three times and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

Despite all the success that Levis had last week, this offense will run through Henry on Thursday night. Even last week, he carried the ball 22 times, while Levis threw just 29 passes. The Steelers are allowing 137.1 rushing yards per game. With all this in mind, it would be shocking if Henry doesn't carry the ball at least 20 times on Thursday. He has topped this mark in his last games when carrying the ball at least that many times.

Will Levis Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-110 bet365)

Levis had as good of a debut as you could ask for. He made zero costly mistakes, he protected the football, and he threw four touchdown passes. But we're not ready to crown him untouchable just yet.

The Steelers' pass defense is giving up 264.3 yards per game. But, as we already discussed, their rush defense is weak as well. We've seen Titans' head coach Mike Vrabel navigate some brutal quarterback scenarios over the past few seasons. Yet, he remains competitive in games by putting his quarterbacks in a position to succeed. The Steelers are averaging the second-most takeaways per game this season. Making Levis throw a lot is not putting him in a position to succeed.

Also, it is worth following DeAndre Hopkins' health throughout the week. He's currently questionable with a toe injury. If he doesn't play, then Levis won't come close to this number.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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