Top 5 NFL Conference Championship Round Prop Bet Picks: Chiefs vs. Ravens
The Conference Championship is here, and there's money to be made betting props this week. We have a plethora of juicy matchups to smash the overs for and some stingy defenses that should lead to some unders.
The first step to building to profiting this week, whether you're straight betting any of these lines or constructing some juicy parlays, is to pull up our Prop Bet Analyzer at Bettingpros.com and then tail these bets and more by hitting my profile at BettingPros.
Enjoy another fantastic week of football with some NFL prop action. Enjoy the sweats, and let's stack some cash this week.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens Conference Championship Round Prop Bet Picks
Lamar Jackson o64.5 rushing yards
Kansas City allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the regular season. Jackson’s rushing equity has been ramped up in the playoffs. In five career playoff games, he has surpassed 54 rushing yards four times while posting at least 100 rushing yards three times.
Gus Edwards o41.5 rushing yards
Baltimore should lean on their ground game this week. Edwards should find running room against a run defense that, since Week 13, has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the lowest stuff rate, and the 12th-highest success rate to gap runs (Edwards 58.2% gap). This line opened at 39.5, which is where I bet it, but it’s still actionable here. If it continues to get steamed up, I would lay off. I would bet the over until it inches up closer to 42.5.
Isiah Pacheco o63.5 rushing yards
In the final six weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs’ offensive line was steamrolling opponents, ranking eighth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Look for Pacheco to be leaned on this week. The biggest weakness in the Ravens’ defense has been against the run. Since Week 13, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the 10th-most missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Travis Kelce o61.5 receiving yards
Last week, Kelce turned in a vintage performance with a 26.1% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, 3.75 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Look for him to push Rice for the team lead in targets this week. Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Kelce has had a 26% TPRR, 2.68 YPRR, and a 25.8% first-read share. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Noah Gray o9.5 receiving yards
Since Week 17, Baltimore has utilized Cover 3 and Cover 6 on 62.4% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 12, against those coverage types, Gray has had a 22% TPRR and 1.73 YPRR. In Weeks 10-18, Baltimore allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Gray has hit the over in five of his last nine games.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- Erickson's NFL Conference Championship Round Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
- NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (Conference Championships)
- NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and BettingPros.com unless otherwise specified.*