Navigate

Top 5 NFL Conference Championship Round Prop Bet Picks: Lions vs. 49ers

by |

The Conference Championship is here, and there's money to be made betting props this week. We have a plethora of juicy matchups to smash the overs for and some stingy defenses that should lead to some unders.

The first step to building to profiting this week, whether you're straight betting any of these lines or constructing some juicy parlays, is to pull up our Prop Bet Analyzer at Bettingpros.com and then tail these bets and more by hitting my profile at BettingPros.

Enjoy another fantastic week of football with some NFL prop action. Enjoy the sweats, and let's stack some cash this week.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

Lions vs. 49ers Conference Championship Round Prop Bet Picks

George Kittle o60.5 receiving yards and o4.5 receptions

Kittle has hit the over for receiving yards for this mark in seven of his last ten games. He also hit the over for receptions in both games, which Deebo Samuel missed this season. If Samuel plays, I will back off the over for his receptions, but the over for his receiving yardage is still a strong bet. Kittle should be second in line to attack Detroit’s single high coverage this week. Since Week 17, Detroit has utilized single-high with 53.7% of their defensive coverage snaps. Against single-high, he has a 20.4% target share, a 24.1% air-yard share, 2.77 YPRR, and a 22.8% first-read share. In the regular season, Detroit allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

David Montgomery o43.5 rushing yards

This line opened at 52.5 rushing yards and has been bet down. This is an easy over. Montgomery has eclipsed this mark in eight of his last ten games. In the playoffs, he has averaged 57% of the snaps played with 14 touches and 57.5 total yards. He ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Detroit should lean on their backfield this week. Since Week 13, San Francisco has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Christian McCaffrey o35.5 receiving yards and o4.5 receptions

Detroit’s run defense is legit. Look for the 49ers to “run through the air” with McCaffrey getting work in the passing game. I will take the over for his receiving yards, where it’s still available at 35.5. If it continues to get steamed up, I’ll just hammer the over for his receptions, which he has hit in seven of his last ten games. Detroit has allowed the second-highest yards per reception to running backs.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and BettingPros.com unless otherwise specified.*

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App