Top 5 NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bet Picks: Chiefs vs. Bills (Sunday)
The Divisional Round is here, and there's money to be made betting props this week. We have a plethora of juicy matchups to smash the overs for and some stingy defenses that should lead to some unders.
The first step to building to profiting this week, whether you're straight betting any of these lines or constructing some juicy parlays, is to pull up our Prop Bet Analyzer at Bettingpros.com and then tail these bets and more by hitting my profile at BettingPros.
Enjoy another fantastic week of football with some NFL prop action. Enjoy the sweats, and let's stack some cash this week.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>
Chiefs vs. Bills Divisional Round Prop Bet Picks
Josh Allen o44.5 rushing yards
With Joe Brady calling the shots, Allen has been rushing more, with at least 44 rushing yards in four of his last eight games. In Weeks 1-10, Allen had at least 44 rushing yards only twice. Allen's playoff record also backs this as an easy over. He has averaged 54.5 rushing yards per game in the playoffs including 78 rushing yards per game in two postseason games against Kansas City.
James Cook o61.5 rushing yards
Cook is the undisputed lead back for Buffalo. The last time he faced Kansas City, he finished with 58 rushing yards with only 10 carries. Cook is sure to get more volume on the ground this week. In eight games with Joe Brady calling plays, he has averaged 16.8 carries per game. Since Week 13, Kansas City has allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate and had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.
Isiah Pacheco o61.5 rushing yards
Pacheco has been a workhorse without Jerick McKinnon. In four of those five games, he has played at least 70% of the snaps while averaging 21 touches and 98.2 total yards. Pacheco should have 20-25 touches this week against a soft Buffalo Bills' run defense. Since Week 13, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 12th-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Rice has easily crushed this reception number in five of his last seven games. Rice has been the primary guy for Patrick Mahomes since Week 12. Since Week 17, Buffalo has had the eighth-highest rate of two high (58.8%). Since Week 12, against two high, Rice has had a 22.5% target share, 3.23 YPRR, and a 27.8% first-read share. The last time he faced this secondary, Rice secured seven of his 10 targets with 72 receiving yards and a score.
Stefon Diggs u65.5 receiving yards
The last time Diggs played Kansas City, he finished with 24 receiving yards. Diggs has hit the under with this receiving yardage mark in seven of his last 10 games. Diggs will have to contend with L'Jarius Sneed shadowing him this week. Sneed has been an elite shadow corner all season. In their last meeting, he followed Diggs on 65% of his routes, holding him to one reception and nine receiving yards (six targets).
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:
- NFL Divisional Round Betting Primer & Expert Picks (Sunday)
- NFL Sunday Same Game Parlays Odds, Picks & Predictions (Divisional Round)
- Top 3 NFL Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Divisional Round (Sunday)
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions
*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data and Bettingpros.com unless otherwise specified.*
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts