The Super Bowl isn't just the biggest game of the year-it's also the biggest day for prop betting. With so many markets to choose from, finding +EV (positive expected value) bets can help bettors identify the best edges.
Using BettingPros’ NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, we've identified the top 5 Super Bowl prop bets based on EV. These bets have been rated highly due to historical trends, matchup analysis, and statistical projections.
Let's break down the best value Super Bowl props and why they're worth considering.
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Best Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl LIX Prop Bet Picks by EV
1️⃣ Patrick Mahomes – Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-112)
- Projection: 33.4 attempts (-3.1 difference)
- EV: +34%
- Hit Rate: 60% last 5 games | 70% last 10 games
Why This Bet is Recommended:
- Game Script: The Chiefs’ approach this season suggests Mahomes won't be throwing 40+ times unless they fall behind early.
- Matchup: The Eagles rank 20th against pass attempt props, showing a tendency to allow efficiency over volume.
- Trend: Mahomes has gone under this line in 7 of his last 10 games.
✅ Best Bet: Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-112)
2️⃣ Patrick Mahomes – Under 24.5 Completions (-120)
- Projection: 22.5 completions (-2.0 difference)
- EV: +24%
- Hit Rate: 40% last 5 games | 50% last 10 games
Why This Bet is Recommended:
- Efficiency Over Volume: The Chiefs rely on yards after catch (YAC) and high-percentage plays instead of volume passing.
- Eagles’ Defense: Philadelphia allows completions but often limits big plays, forcing third downs and punts.
- Trend: Mahomes has hit under this number in 6 of his last 10 games.
✅ Best Bet: Under 24.5 Completions (-120)
3️⃣ Isiah Pacheco – Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-112)
- Projection: 5.0 attempts (-1.5 difference)
- EV: +17%
- Hit Rate: 60% last 5 games | 80% last 10 games
Why This Bet is Recommended:
- Game Flow: The Chiefs are expected to mix in multiple running backs instead of relying solely on Pacheco.
- Historical Trend: Pacheco has gone under this line in 8 of his last 10 games.
- Eagles Run Defense: Philly’s defensive front ranks 6th best against rushing attempts props.
✅ Best Bet: Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-112)
4️⃣ Travis Kelce – Under 6.5 Receptions (EVEN)
- Projection: 6.2 receptions (-0.3 difference)
- EV: +15%
- Hit Rate: 40% last 5 games | 40% last 10 games
Why This Bet is Recommended:
- Defensive Focus: The Eagles will likely bracket Kelce, forcing Mahomes to look elsewhere.
- Low Hit Rate: Kelce has gone under 6.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games.
- Even Money Value: Getting EVEN odds on a high-risk playmaker is solid value.
✅ Best Bet: Under 6.5 Receptions (EVEN)
5️⃣ Jahan Dotson – Over 0.5 Receptions (-124)
- Projection: 1.0 receptions (+0.5 difference)
- EV: +15%
- Hit Rate: 40% last 5 games | 60% full season
Why This Bet is Recommended:
- Low Bar to Clear: Dotson just needs one catch to cash this bet.
- Historical Trend: Dotson has had at least one catch in 60% of his games this season.
- Projected Game Script: The Eagles may need to throw more, increasing opportunities for all receivers.
✅ Best Bet: Over 0.5 Receptions (-124)
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