Top 6 MLB Team Futures Odds & Picks (2022)
As we continue to march through the dog days of summer and admire the festivities surrounding the Midsummer Classic, the break in the schedule allows for an opportunity to take inventory around the league and evaluate where value resides in MLB futures betting markets.
This article will touch on each division and the races surrounding playoff berths as the second half of the 2022 season gets underway.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
American League
AL East: Boston Red Sox to miss the playoffs (+100)
The commanding lead that the Yankees hold in the AL East saps any value from projecting them to win the division and makes it nearly impossible for another team to overtake them. Even with the addition of an extra playoff team in the 2022 MLB postseason, it is unlikely for the AL East to send three teams to the Wild Card with all the attrition that will take place in the second half of the season.
Red Sox pitching ranks below league average in almost every statistical category, which does not figure to get much better as Chris Sale will be returning to the IL after the break. The Red Sox have struggled against teams above .500 and hold an abysmal 12-26 record within the division. FanGraphs predicts that Boston has a 62.4% chance of missing the playoffs (implied odds of -166).
AL Central: Chicago White Sox to win the division (+125)
The AL Central features a much closer divisional race than the other divisions in the AL, with the Twins holding a two-game lead on the Guardians and a three-game lead on the White Sox. The White Sox have been relatively snake bitten with injuries through the first half of the 2022 season, with star outfielder Eloy Jimenez and 2021 Cy Young contender Lance Lynn sidelined for most of Chicago's games.
Health is the key to the second-half success of the White Sox, and they look to come back from the break healthier than they have been all year. The White Sox possess the most talented starting rotation and lineup in the division without a doubt, and FanGraphs predicts them to have the softest remaining schedule in the entire AL over the second half.
AL West: Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs (-175)
Like the AL East, the Houston Astros possess a stranglehold on the division and lead the second-place Mariners by nine games. Even so, Seattle enters the break as the hottest team in baseball, setting an MLB record with 14 consecutive wins heading into the All-Star break. The Mariners have received fantastic starting and relief pitching in the first half of 2022, ranking within the top five in the AL in most statistical categories.
Offensively, Seattle is led by All-Star Ty France and the budding superstar Julio Rodriguez, who is quickly running away with the American League ROY award. FanGraphs projects the Mariners to have a 67.9% chance to make the playoffs (-212 implied odds), which will happen if the Mariners continue to beat up on the bottom feeders of the division.
National League
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies to miss the playoffs (-105)
The Phillies had an excellent close to the first half after the firing of Joe Girardi, but there are reasons to believe this success won't last. Primarily, the Phillies will begin the second half without Bryce Harper and Jean Segura, who have both sustained broken finger injuries over the past month and a half.
Additionally, although the Phillies have benefitted from decent starting pitching in the first half, they actually rank third in their own division behind the Braves and Mets in most metrics. The Phillies will also play a projected tougher remaining schedule than other Wild Card contenders in the Padres, Giants, Brewers and Cardinals. FanGraphs puts the Phillies' chance of missing the playoffs at 54.3% (-119 implied odds).
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals to win the division (+165)
The NL Central features a two-team race for the division crown between the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals. Though these two teams are virtually deadlocked for the lead in the division, the Pythagorean win expectation for each team favors the Cardinals quite a bit, projecting them to have 54 expected wins at the break as opposed to 49 for the Brewers.
The Brewers likely have the more prolific starting rotation of the two teams, but the Cardinals pitching staff actually surrenders fewer runs per game. The Cardinals’ offense is undoubtedly more complete than the HR-reliant Brewers and features two legitimate NL MVP candidates in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. FanGraphs also predicts the Cardinals to have the softest second-half schedule in the entire NL.
NL West: San Francisco Giants to make the playoffs (+135)
It seems that the Giants have been undeservedly flying under the radar for a second straight year. Led by an outstanding manager in Gabe Kapler, the Giants score the second most runs in the NL on a per-game basis without possessing the star power that other NL playoff contenders have.
San Francisco's Pythagorean win projection gives them an additional three wins at the break, and their +51 run differential is much higher than that of the Padres and Brewers, who will likely also be competing for Wild Card spots. FanGraphs projects the Giants to have a remaining strength of schedule in the bottom third of the NL and gives them a 52.5% chance to make the postseason (-111 implied odds).
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