Top 8 MLB Home Run Derby Odds & Picks for Monday (7/18)

Kyle Schwarber vs. Albert Pujols

Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber, the number one seed, also has experience. He was runner-up against current teammate Bryce Harper in 2018, and Schwarber probably learned a few things from that Derby that he can bring to the table for this Derby. Schwarber has it easy going up against Albert Pujols to start things off.

While Pujols is one of the best all-time sluggers in the MLB, he will not have the stamina to compete at this stage at this level of his career. But it’ll be fun to see.

Anyway, Schwarber should be able to move to the semis to take on either Juan Soto or Jose Ramirez.

Bet: Schwarber to advance Round 1

Juan Soto vs. Jose Ramirez

Soto is another veteran on the Derby list. He was in it for the first time last season and lost to Pete Alonso. Alonso didn’t make it close, but Soto should have a better feel for the Derby this year. Still, with all this contract and trade talk, Soto might not be there mentally this season.

He’ll take on Jose Ramirez, one of the underdogs in the Derby. Ramirez hasn’t participated in a Home Run Derby yet and will have to take on Soto, who has experience. I like Soto to come away with the first-round win over Ramirez, but it’s hard to trust Soto with everything going on, on the side.

Bet: Soto to advance Round 1

Corey Seager vs. Julio Rodriguez

This is where things get interesting. Both of these two sluggers have similar, extremely long odds. However, one of these players has to make the semifinals. We’ve got to figure out which player will win this battle. Once we do that, we’ll hold at least a +900 ticket into the semifinals.

This matchup is where the value is if you can pick the winner. Corey Seager is probably going to be comfortable at Dodger Stadium. Seager is used to blasting shots near center field, but if he pulls the ball, I think he’ll have the opportunity to beat a rookie like Julio Rodriguez. Rodriguez is 21 years old and will have a ton of pressure under the spotlight. This could mean he’ll struggle, and I’ll take my chances with the veteran in Seager.

He’s the value play. However, he’ll have to face the winner of the battle between Alonso and Acuna. So that’s where things get challenging, of course.

Bet: Seager to advance Round 1

Pete Alonso vs. Ronald Acuna Jr.

Acuna Jr. didn’t get the best draw. He’ll have to take on the two-time champion and reigning champion, Pete Alonso. I already spoke about why Alonso could win the Derby. But Acuna Jr. is also a veteran in the Derby and has potential. To begin with, Acuna Jr. hasn’t been all that great this year and has just eight homers in 53 games this year. Maybe his ACL injury is still going to take time.

I’d side with Alonso here.

Favorite Outright Winner Odds & Pick

From my projections, I have Alonso vs. Seager and Schwarber vs. Soto. I know we usually get a ton of wrinkles in the Home Run Derby, and it usually doesn’t play out with the top four moving on. But this Derby feels different. Everyone wants to see Kyle Schwarber take on Pete Alonso in the finals. Those are two of the best NL sluggers in our game and two rivals between New York and Philadelphia.

I’m taking Pete Alonso to beat Kyle Schwarber in the Home Run Derby Finals. I know, shocking.

Bet: Pete Alonso (+200 at DraftKings)

Favorite Long-Shot Odds & Picks

Out of the field of eight participants, Pete Alonso comes in as the favorite, as he has 2/1 odds to bring home his third straight Home Run Derby title. However, I think that his opponent is getting slept on a little bit on the books, as Ronald Acuna Jr. is priced at +600 or tied for third with the same odds as Nationals OF Juan Soto. The reason why I think that he is underpriced is that he is only +150 to beat Alonso in the first round. If he beats the favorite, which I predict to happen, he will not have tough competition like to get to the final. I am not saying that Alonso should give in at all, but I think Acuna could take him down!

Between the two of them, the career difference is only 17 homers, and with this season and half of last being lost to his torn ACL, the number may be identical, or with Ronald having more, Acuna is back for his fifth time participating. He just can’t get enough. He shows the ability to hit to all fields for power and seems poised to go for a serious run if he can get past the Polar Bear. Ronald Acuna Jr. also has no problem hitting homers a VERY long way, as he has the third-most home runs in MLB at over 440+ feet. Because of this, he should get all the time to put up a huge number in the first round, making it very hard to catch him!

Dark Horse: Corey Seager +950

Corey Seager has all of the makings of a champion that nobody saw coming. The former team nostalgia of the ballpark, the sheer skill as a power hitter, and him only being the slightest dog possible against a rookie in Julio Rodriguez. People tend to lean toward people who they find exciting, and I think these two will have a great round, one that may be decided in a swing-off. Seager signed with Texas this off-season and has hit 22 homers to this point of the year.

Long-Shot Pick Recap & Strategy: Ronald Acuna to win for 2U and .5U on Corey Seager to win

Long-Shot Round 1 Matchup: Pujols over Schwarber