There’s always been something special about Speedweek, the week-long event leading up to “The Great American Race.”
Let’s keep the good vibes rolling with my best bets for the 2025 Daytona 500 for the first full weekend of NASCAR racing this season.
Check out our YouTube Short for the best 2025 Daytona 500 bets >>>
2025 Daytona 500: NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions
Despite what that damn groundhog in Punxsutawney, Penn., says, it’s the proverbial start of spring for race fans across the country. Cars are back on the track weekly from here until November. It’ll be Memorial Day and the Coca-Cola 600 before we know it. Life is good.
Still, this year’s Speed Week feels even more significant. Maybe it’s because tensions have been high following an election year. Perhaps it’s because Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s JR Motorsports (JRM) raced its way into its first-ever Daytona 500. Either way, ratings are up across the board, and it’s a beautiful site.
Bubba Wallace To Lead a Lap (-141 via BetRivers) | 3u
Bubba Wallace ranked third in the IBT Betting Model, largely thanks to his prowess at the World Center of Racing. The new father is second in the Daytona Next-Gen Average finish and eighth in the Daytona Next-Gen total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com. He was also in the top 10 in average position and driver rating at both Daytona races last season.
The To Lead a Lap market is usually only offered in NASCAR for the Daytona 500 and in IndyCar for the Indianapolis 500. Therefore, the majority of my unit allocation is going there this week.
Wallace, in particular, has led laps in seven of the last eight Daytona races, including all four 500s in that span. This was originally offered at BetRivers at the price of -177. However, I took advantage of a 25% boost and laid the hammer on it. I suggest you do the same.
Zane Smith To Finish Lead Lap (-140 via Caesars) | 1.5u
The Top 20 market is another place I usually heavily invest in for the Daytona 500. It wasn’t offered this year, but what was is a Lead Lap Finish market. I cashed a Zane Smith T20 last year in this race, so let’s keep it rolling here.
The 2022 Truck Series Champion is three-for-three at finishing on the lead lap in his Daytona Cup Series starts, finishing P13 each time. That’s good for the seventh-best Daytona Next-Gen Average finish. He also finished on the lead lap in five of six superspeedway races last season.
Smith is also now running with Front Row Motorsports (FRM), an organization that put a car on the front row of all six superspeedway races last year. The 25-year-old has both the speed and trends working in his favor at Daytona. Let’s ride!
Winning Car Number Over 12.5 (-114 via Caesars) | 2u
This is a wager I made two months ago on our Early Daytona 500 Picks episode of “The Backroad” as part of a parlay with the Florida Gators moneyline in the Mortgage Home Gasparilla Bowl. However, you can still get invested at a manageable -150 price tag, and I’d bet it all the way down to -170.
It’s simply a numbers play. Even after Thursday night’s Daytona Duels, there are 28 cars over with a number over 12.5 versus 13 cars under it. While there are some heavy hitters in the under group, the over gives you eight former Daytona winners, including:
- Jimmie Johnson (3x)
- William Byron (3x)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2x)
- Erik Jones
- Michael McDowell
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Joey Logano
There’s strength in numbers in superspeedway racing. I’ll side with the group that’ll more than double the other come Sunday.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Kyle Busch Outright (+1400 via bet365) | .75u
Bubba Wallace Outright (+2200 via Caesars) | .5u
A.J. Allmendinger To Lead a Lap (+125 via BetRivers) | 1.3u
Shane van Gisbergen To Lead a Lap (+175 via BetRivers) | 1u
Hélio Castroneves To Lead a Lap (+175 via BetRivers) | 1u
Cody Ware To Finish Lead Lap (-130 via Caesars) 1.5u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”
