Top College Basketball Picks for Saturday, February 26th (2022)
Bet $10, Win $200 if Kentucky or Arkansas Hit a Three-Pointer >>
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 18 Arkansas (-2.5) O/U 147.5 ( Tip 2 p.m. ET)
Kentucky would love to have guards TyTy Washington and Savir Wheeler in the lineup, but what makes this team great is the fact they still have enough talent to be fine without them. The injuries gave Davion Mintz more playing time, and he did well with 13 points and two steals in the 71-66 win over LSU. Oscar Tshiebwe is the guy everyone on the court has to worry about as the Wooden award favorite is averaging 16.3 points and a nation-leading 15.3 rebounds per game.
Tshiebwe will undoubtedly be a challenge for the Razorbacks’ big man Jaylin Williams, averaging an impressive 9.6 rebounds per game. With the possibility of Kentucky hurting at the guard position, this is a chance for JD Notae to have another great game. He’s coming off a stellar 22-point performance against Florida. To avoid a rebounding battle between Williams and Tshiebwe, he needs to hit his shots.
How confident is Arkansas coming into the game?
That’s certainly bulletin board material. If Washington and Wheeler miss another game, it hurts Kentucky, but it does not hinder them with Kellan Grady and Davion Mintz. They still have Tshiebwe down low, and no one has been able to stop him this year.
No. 6 Duke (-7.5) vs. Syracuse O/U 151.5 (Tip 6 p.m. ET)
Duke has been tested the last couple of weeks, but they’ve been able to pull through, including the four-point road win against Virginia. They’ve been one of the best teams at second-chance points as they’re getting offensive rebounds on 33.3% of their shots, and you can’t give a team like this extra opportunities. Especially with how well they can shoot the three as they rank 47th in three-point shooting (36.2%), with A.J. Griffin making 48%.
The Orange are much better offensively than what the box score reads in their last matchup with Duke. Joseph Girard and Cole Swider are 40% three-point shooters, but they combined for 3-of-25 from behind the arc in the previous game. Syracuse has not been a defensive juggernaut by any means, but with the loss of center Jesse Edwards, they have a big hole in the frontcourt. They weren’t going to compete very well down low against Paolo Banchero and Mark Williams, but it’s an even more significant disadvantage.
Cuse is a much better team in the dome this year, especially when the student section is full. Duke has been known to play down to their competition on occasion, and we should expect the Orange to shoot much better from three than in their last matchup.
No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 10 Baylor (-3) O/U 149 (Tip 8 p.m. ET)
Kansas controls their own destiny to win the Big 12 regular-season championship, but they will have one of their biggest tests as they head into Waco. Although the Jayhawks are atop the standings, it hasn’t been an easy road. They’ve played a lot of close games, including two against Oklahoma that were decided by five points, Iowa State by two, Kansas State on the road by three in a comeback, and the double OT game against Texas Tech. The problem with Kansas is their defense, and they’ve had trouble guarding at the rim and in transition.
The Bears want to forget this last matchup against Kansas a couple of weeks back in Allen Fieldhouse. Their shooting was awful, and they were beaten down in the boards. The ninth-best KenPom adjusted offense is one of best at second-chance opportunities as they’re third in offensive rebounding rate. They’re also a much better team at home, as three of their four conference losses were road games.
The Baylor we saw in the last game against Kansas is what this team is, and that’s why they come into this game as the home favorite. Expect them to be more comfortable at home. They should be able to exploit the Kansas defense this time around.
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