Top College Basketball Picks for Saturday, January 29th (2022)
We have a special weekend in College Basketball to highlight. It’s the annual Big Ten vs. SEC matchups, so we have to feature a couple of the best games from the non-conference matchups that include three top-12 teams. Lastly, we’ll highlight another top team coming off a loss earlier in the week to face an in-state rival that has struggled all season.
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No. 12 Kentucky vs. No. 5 Kansas (Tip 6 p.m. ET)
Kentucky sits a couple of games behind Auburn for the top spot, but they’ve struggled against some of the better teams in the conference as they’re 1-2 against ranked SEC opponents. This will be an excellent test to see if they have a chance to make it far into March. For the Wildcats to put up a big win in Lawerence, they’re going to need forward Oscar Tshiebwe to dominate on the boards like he’s been doing all the year. The West Virginia transfer leads the nation in defensive rebounding rate, second in offensive rebounding rate, and his 303 total rebounds lead the nation.
Although the Jayhawks have just two losses and sit at No. 5 nationally, they do not look like a top team. Four of their last five wins have been by three points or less, including against a Kansas State team that’s outside of the top 50 KenPom rankings. There have been many uncertainties within the Kansas rotation, including with Arizona State transfer Remy Martin, one of the hottest players coming out of the portal. With ineffectiveness and injuries, he’s seen his role diminish and has played under 20 minutes in the last three games, going 4-of-21 from the field. They will need to lean on David McCormack on the boards against Tshiebwe. As mentioned earlier, Tshiebwe is second in offensive rebounding rate, McCormick is first.
When you look at this game, a significant factor will be the McCormack and Tshiebwe matchup on the boards. They will battle each other and help get the possession advantage that could be crucial in this close game.
Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Auburn (Tip 2 p.m.)
Auburn must be feeling the pressure as the new No. 1 by narrowly beating an 8-11 Missouri team 55-54 earlier this week. In that game, forward Jabari Smith was not effective and posted his worse shooting night going 2-of-15, but luckily the Tigers were able to out-rebound the other Tigers 48-38 for the win. The defense, specifically at the rim, is a big factor for their success. Auburn leads the nation with 8.2 blocks per game, with forward Walker Kessler blocking over 18 percent of opposing players’ two-point shot attempts this season.
This year, Oklahoma has some good wins against ranked opponents Florida and Arkansas but have started rough in conference play by losing the first five of seven. The first leg of the schedule has been difficult with games against Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, and two against Baylor. The Sooners need to control how much they turn over the ball — they turn it over 15.2 times per game which is 320th in the nation.
This will not be the game Oklahoma controls their turnovers as Auburn ranks 46th with 15.7 turnovers forced per game. Also, don’t expect Jabari Smith to have another bad performance as that was the first time he’s scored in single digits since November. The Sooners play a lot smaller, as forward Tanner Groves will most be playing the wing and spending more time on Walker Kessler, Smith will have the size advantage in most of his matchups. He should have a big game and a decisive win for Auburn.
Arizona State vs. No. 3 Arizona (Tip 2:30 p.m. ET)
Is Bobby Hurley starting to feel the heat in Tempe? The Sun Devils are just 9-15 in conference play over the last two seasons, and he might be to unravel. He will be back today after serving a one-game suspension for an altering with refs after a loss to Stanford in which the Cardinals went to the line 41 times. The ASU offense has been abysmal as they are 339th nationally from three-point range (27.4%) and 293rd in two-point field goal percentage (46.3).
It’s going to be tough for ASU to keep up with an Arizona team that’s one of the best offensive teams in the country, and they’ve been crushing opponents with the second-best scoring margin (22). They had a hiccup earlier in the week with the 75-59 loss to UCLA, but that’s due primarily to forward Azuolas Tubelis playing just a limited time as he’s coming back from an ankle sprain.
This is the type of game Arizona needs to get the momentum back from the horrific loss earlier in the week. The Wildcats play at such a quick tempo and are so efficient on offense they should be able to jump out to an early lead and coast through. If ASU wasn’t at the absolute bottom in terms of offense, you could give them the points in this large spread, but Arizona is going to want to make a statement against their in-state rivals. Expect a blowout.
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