Top College Basketball Picks for Tuesday, December 21 (2021)
Finally, there’s a solid slate of college basketball with tons of games to choose from. Ultimately, when there are many games to look at, there’s more opportunity to find valuable lines. So let’s get right to it. Here are my three favorite plays for December 21.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Marshall vs. Toledo: Toledo -143 Moneyline
(7:00 PM ET tip)
The Toledo Rockets will welcome the Marshall Thundering Herd to Savage Arena for a non-conference matchup between two very fast-paced teams. Marshall and Toledo don’t have much depth and will play starters for a high amount of minutes in this game.
The Thundering Hard are shooting just 28.4 percent from long range but 55.7 percent from inside the arc of the year. There’s potential for Marshall inside the paint, but Marshall struggles to get offensive rebounds and also doesn’t get to the line at a solid pace in comparison to Toledo.
Toledo, on the other hand, is currently 61st in the nation in adjusted efficiency on the offensive end, despite shooting an effective field goal percentage of 48.5 percent. The Rockets won’t turn the ball over at a high rate and should be able to work the offensive glass a little bit in this game. Plus, Toledo is shooting 76.9 percent from the foul line and should get there more often, at home, against Marshall.
Fresno State vs. Utah: Utah -150 Moneyline
(7:00 PM ET tip)
Everyone is turned off by Utah after losing to Missouri, 83-75 on December 18, on the road. Now Utah is back home and will look to knock off Fresno State, which would be a solid resume win for the program.
Utah is an average offense with a high free throw percentage. The Utes are shooting 33.3 percent from downtown and 49.4 percent from inside, but the big number, from the foul line, is Utah shooting 79.8 percent from the charity stripe.
Fresno State, on the other hand, is shooting 30.5 percent from long range and should struggle even more against a Utes team that is holding opponents to 24.9 percent from long range this season. The Bulldogs are also solid at the foul line but, again, should struggle more from the field in comparison to Utah. Utah is holding teams to a 44.2 percent effective field goal percentage. Those long-range jumpers likely won’t fall for Fresno State on the road.
Air Force vs. Tarleton State: Air Force +7
(8:00 PM ET tip)
Air Force has been all over the place this year. The Falcons have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.2 percent on the season but ultimately turn the ball over at a high rate while struggling on the offensive glass. The Falcons also don’t get to the line at a high rate, but you can expect more foul shots against Tarleton State.
Still, Air Force is shooting 36.1 percent from deep and 54.2 percent from the inside, which is an area that the Falcons can dominate against Tarleton State.
Meanwhile, the Texans have been awful offensively, shooting a 42.9 percent effective field goal percentage. They also don’t get a high amount of offensive rebounds and struggle to get to the line. Both offenses don’t get to the line much, but both defenses foul a whole lot. It’ll be interesting to see how this game shapes up.
Either way, with Tarleton State shooting 26.7 percent from long range and 44.1 percent from inside, I like Air Force’s chances to stay in this game and potentially win it outright.
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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.