Top College Basketball Picks Sunday, March 7th (2021)
With as many games that COVID-19 forced to be postponed or canceled throughout this college basketball season, it was only a matter of time before the pandemic affected conference tournaments. It happened on Friday afternoon in the MVC tournament, as Drake advanced to the semifinals after Northern Iowa had a positive COVID-19 test in its program the night before. With March Madness right around the corner, the pandemic is still rearing its ugly head and casting doubt that the sport’s most beloved event will go off without a hitch. As Ken Pomeroy pointed out, the Drake-Northern Iowa cancellation is interesting from a historical perspective.
Here are three picks for Sunday.
YTD: 120-114-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Florida at Tennessee (-5): 12:00 PM ET
The Florida Gators saw their three-game winning streak end disappointingly on Wednesday night as they narrowly lost to Missouri 72-70 at home. However, the Gators have played some of their best basketball away from home, winning four of their last five road games. They have won those four games in that stretch by an average of 8.5 PPG, including a big win in Morgantown over West Virginia. Florida takes on a Tennessee team limping into the postseason, having lost three of their last five games. The only wins by the Volunteers in that span are against two of the three worst teams in the conference in South Carolina and Vanderbilt. They have not beaten a team in the top seven of the SEC since January 6th. Thus, the Gators are the more trusted side.
The Volunteers can blame an inconsistent offense for their recent struggles. In Tennessee’s last five wins, they are averaging 82.8 PPG. In their previous four losses, they have averaged just 60.5 PPG. The Gators held Tennessee to only 49 points in a 75-49 rout in Gainesville on January 19th, so they have the blueprint for how to limit Jaden Springer, Keon Johnson, and company.
Tennessee has had eight days to prepare for this game, while Florida last played on Wednesday of this week. However, that should not concern bettors as the Gators are 4-1 ATS when they are at a rest disadvantage. The Volunteers will undoubtedly be looking for revenge from a humiliating loss to Florida earlier in the season, but that 26-point drubbing is too big to ignore.
Michigan (-9.5) at Michigan State: 4:30 PM ET
When the Wolverines and Spartans played just three days ago in Ann Arbor, the result was never in doubt as Michigan cruised to a 69-50 victory. While Michigan State never really threatened Michigan, they likely also did not go full throttle down the stretch as they knew they would get another opportunity at them this afternoon. Therefore, bettors should not be swayed by Michigan’s significant margin of victory and should instead expect a closer game in the rematch.
There is a big difference in the motivation levels of these two teams entering today’s tilt. Michigan State is in desperate need of another signature win to help their NCAA tournament resume. By contrast, Michigan is still likely squarely on the No. 1 seed line even if they lose and ultimately do not go on to win the Big Ten tournament. While there is always motivation to beat your biggest rival, I expect Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo to have his men fired up on Senior Day and compete hard in Joshua Langford’s last home game.
Despite losing two of their last three games overall, Michigan State has won their previous three home games. They defeated two top-five teams in Illinois and Ohio State in that span, so beating the Wolverines should not be considered that big of an upset.
Penn State at Maryland (-5): 7:00 PM ET
Speaking of motivation levels, the varying degrees of motivation levels in this game should propel Maryland to a big victory. Though they appear safely in the tournament field at the moment, the Terrapins would be wise to avoid a second-straight bad loss after Northwestern defeated them in Evanston on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Penn State’s tournament hopes have been vanquished for quite some time now, as the Nittany Lions lost five of their last seven games since mid-February. Maryland had won five consecutive games before their loss at Northwestern, so look for the Terrapins to get their momentum back before the Big Ten tournament begins.
Penn State ranks dead-last in the conference in some of the most important statistical categories. They are last in effective field goal percentage defense, two-point percentage defense, and two-point percentage offense. The Nittany Lions lack any depth on the front line outside of John Harrar, and Harrar is a defensive liability in this matchup against a smaller and quicker Terrapins team as it is. Penn State held Maryland to 50 points in a 55-50 home win on February 5th. However, Penn State is not currently playing anywhere close to the same kind of defense as they played in that game. The Nittany Lions have allowed 77.4 PPG over the last five games, despite facing two offenses in the bottom half of the league in scoring in that span.
Maryland is a profitable 6-5 ATS as a home favorite, and they have covered four of their last six games overall. Penn State has covered two of their previous six games, and I want no part of backing an unmotivated team in this one.
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