Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, June 17 (2022)
At the beginning of the season, any offense was hard to come by. But with the weather warming up and the batters figuring out the new balls, baseball is returning to being what we wanted it to be.
With that said, here are my three best bets for tonight’s MLB slate. Let’s make some profit on Father’s Day Weekend!
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds aren’t that bad. However, they’ve blown a ton of games in late innings, which is why I will play this game a bit differently.
The Brewers will send out left-hander Eric Lauer, who has declined since the start of the season. Lauer has a 6.10 xFIP in the last 30 days while striking out just 14.8% of batters in that same time frame. He also walked 10.7% of batters in those 30 days.
The Reds, on the other hand, have Jonathan India back in the lineup. As a projected lineup, the Reds have hit a .289 ISO and wOBA of .399 against lefties in the last 30 days with 26.8% of line drives and just 16.3% of strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Reds will send out Hunter Greene, who has started to develop for the Reds. He’s striking out 32.7% of batters over the last 30 days while walking them at a 5.6% clip. He’ll also take on a Brewers projected lineup with a .139 ISO and wOBA of .282 in the last 30 days.
Back the Reds in the first five innings.
Bet: Reds F5 Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
To me, the wrong team is favored. The Minnesota Twins will send out Devin Smeltzer, who has a 5.62 xFIP in the last 30 days, and he’s also striking out just 12.8% of batters.
Meanwhile, he’ll have to face a stack of three righties between Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker, who have all been getting on base at a high rate in the last 30 days against lefties.
On the other hand, Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for Arizona. He’s another lefty who has pitched better than Smeltzer in the last 30 days. Bumgarner has had a 4.85 xFIP in the previous 30 days with low walks, and low line drives allowed. He’s also facing a Twins lineup that has been abysmal against lefties with a .091 ISO and wOBA of .294.
Back the Diamondbacks, at home, as underdogs.
Bet: Diamondbacks (+120 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
On Clayton Kershaw Day, there’s only one thing to do: bet the Dodgers.
Kershaw wasn’t at his best in his return start, but clearly, he’s going to improve over time. On the season, Kershaw has a 3.34 xFIP with 28.3% of strikeouts in the last 30 days.
He’s taking on a Guardians lineup with three players with an elevated ISO against lefties and just one player with a high wOBA against lefties. The one guy to watch out for is Jose Ramirez. Besides that, Kershaw should be able to cruise against this Guardians lineup.
Meanwhile, Zach Plesac will get the call for the Guardians. He’s been hot and cold recently, but right now, he’s hot, holding an xFIP of 3.63 in the last 30 days. Still, it’s never easy facing this Dodgers lineup, no matter how much they’ve struggled. Against righties, the Dodgers have a .174 ISO and wOBA of .329 in the last 30 days, with 22.1% of line drives and just 34% of ground balls hit with their projected lineup over the previous 30 days.
I’ll take the Dodgers on the run line.
Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
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