Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, June 3 (2022)
We’ve made it to the weekend. Now it’s time to give out my best bets for the next three slates in the MLB.
With so many intriguing options today, let’s get right to it. Here are my favorite bets for the MLB slate on June 3.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
You know I’ve enjoyed fading Elieser Hernandez if you’ve been following along.
Guess who the Marlins are pitching today? Hernandez!
Hernandez has a 5.99 xFIP in the last 30 days with 19% of strikeouts and 7.6% of walks. He’s been a bit lucky in the last 30 days with a BABIP of .239, but overall, he has been hit hard by lefties and righties in the last 30 days.
The Giants have a .195 ISO and wOBA of .321 against righties in the last 30 days and are hitting nearly 22% of line drives using their projected lineup in that same time frame.
On the other hand, Alex Cobb has been extremely unlucky and will take the hill for the Giants. His numbers will resort back to the mean eventually. Cobb has a 2.59 xFIP with 28.9% of strikeouts and 6.1% of walks. Despite all of that, he’s allowing a BABIP of .380 despite earning 62.2% of ground balls.
Those ground balls won’t find holes for much longer. Take the Giants on the moneyline.
Bet: Giants (-150 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles
I found another major pitching mismatch. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber will take the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles.
Zimmermann has had a 5.11 xFIP in the last 30 days with just 14.4% of strikeouts. He’s allowing righties to hit a .404 wOBA and ISO of .379 in that time frame, and the lefty is even allowing lefties to hit a .479 wOBA and ISO of .579. He’s been rocked and will take on a Guardians lineup with a .163 ISO and wOBA of .335. The Guardians are hitting 25.3% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Shane Bieber hasn’t been elite, but he’s also been unlucky with a .373 BABIP in the last 30 days. Righties have a .347 wOBA against Bieber in the last 30 days, but that’s his only blemish. I’ll take my chances with Bieber over Zimmermann any day of the week.
Bet: Guardians (-140 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays are red hot, and I don’t think they’ll cool off tonight. The Blue Jays will take on Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Twins, who is making his debut for the season.
Gonzalez had a 5.56 xFIP last season with 12.6% of strikeouts. He rarely earned ground balls, gave up plenty of line-drive contact, and was overall a bad pitcher for the Rockies.
The Blue Jays are starting to hit at a very high rate and will have Yusei Kikuchi on the mound to keep things in order. The left-hander has been above average with a 4.05 xFIP in the last 30 days and will take on a Twins lineup with a .117 ISO and wOBA of .283 in the same time frame.
Let’s take the Blue Jays -1.5 in tonight’s game.
Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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