The MLB season is in full swing, and the league rolls out a stacked 15-game slate on Saturday. I've sifted through the pitching matchups and statistics, narrowing in on three MLB bets for today's action. Here are my top wagers on the diamond.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook)
Houston Astros (+105) vs. Minnesota Twins (-125) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Let's pick it up in the Twin Cities, where we have an American League showdown between the Astros (3-4) and the Twins (2-5). Houston will turn to Spencer Arrighetti as they try for their second straight win, while Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis, MN.
Neither of these offenses has been too potent out of the gate, but I believe that presents us an opportunity to play the over at a deflated number. For starters, Ober got lit up by the Cardinals in his season debut, giving up eight earned runs on eight hits and three walks over just 2.2 innings. Furthermore, the right-hander has struggled in the past against this Astros lineup. Their current roster is slashing .344/.364/.844 against him over 32 at-bats.
Additionally, the wind is going to be howling out to right field, as Swish Analytics projects 13.4 miles per hour (MPH) winds at game time. I'll also be looking to play Yordan Alvarez props, as he's 5-for-8 (.625) against Ober with a pair of home runs. They're not currently listed at Bet365 as of this writing, but be on the lookout for them when they go live.
On the other hand, the Twins have also seen Arrighetti well in the past. Over a 15 at-bat sample size, Minnesota is slashing .400/.471/.400 against him. The right-hander was solid in his season debut against the Mets (6.0 IP, 1 ER), but he's coming off of a mediocre season where he logged a 4.53 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. This Twins lineup has some sluggers and plenty of depth, and I believe both offenses are primed to do damage.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
Athletics (-120) vs. Colorado Rockies (+100) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
A couple of bottom feeders will square off in the Mile High City tonight, as the Rockies (1-6) host the Athletics (3-5) in an interleague clash. JP Sears will take the ball for the squad that hails from Sacramento, while Colorado opts for German Marquez. This game gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Unlike the Astros vs. Twins game from above, I'm not expecting too much offense in this one. However, since both of these bullpens are horrendous, I'm going to take them out of the equation and play the first-five Under at 5.0 runs (-120).
Starting with Marquez, he looked fantastic in his season debut, blanking the Phillies over 6.0 innings. The right-hander has a small head-to-head history against the Athletics, but Seth Brown (0-for-3), Luis Urias (0-for-6), and Gio Urshela (0-for-3) are a combined 0-for-12 (.000) against him. On the flip side, Sears (2.70 ERA) has held Colorado's lineup to 1-for-16 (.062) in his career. Overall, Colorado's offense is dead last in scoring (2.0 RPG), while ranking 26th in OPS (.585) and 30th in K% (31.9%). Both starters should excel in this matchup - give me the F5 under.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 5.0 Runs (-120)
Seattle Mariners (+110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
Let's wrap things up in the Bay, where the Mariners (3-5) and the Giants (6-1) will face off tonight. Robbie Ray gets the nod for San Francisco, while visiting Seattle turns to Bryce Miller. First pitch is set for 9:05 p.m. ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA.
I don't anticipate the Mariners finding much offense in this game, which I believe will ultimately lead to the Giants collecting their sixth straight victory. Seattle comes into today's action ranked 24th in team batting average (.198), 19th in OPS (.639), and 22nd in runs per game (3.38). They're also 22nd in wOBA (.271) and 25th in K% (27.5%).
Seattle's offensive woes likely won't turn around in this game, as they're tasked with trying to produce runs against San Francisco's Ray (5.06 ERA). The left-hander has held their current roster to a slash line of .161/.235/.226 over 62 at-bats. Finally, the Giants have been excellent in terms of relief pitching, ranking third in ERA (1.84), ninth in WHIP (1.09), and 11th in opposing batting average (.211). San Francisco's pitching staff should stifle Seattle's offense, leading to another victory for the home team. Let's ride with the Giants.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-130)
