Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday, October 20th (2022)
In Game 1 of the ALCS, the New York Yankees and Houston Astros set a postseason record for the biggest disparity in strikeouts between two teams (Yankees-17, Astros-2). Meanwhile, Houston beat New York at its own game, outslugging the Yankees three home runs to two, in a game where five solo home runs accounted for the six total runs.
Houston is now 7-1 all-time at home against New York in the playoffs, and took the first team in repeating history of the 2017 and 2019 ALCS’s. Can the Astros take a commanding 2-0 series lead, or will the Yankees even things up heading back to the Bronx in Game 3.
- Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Yankees/Astros)
- MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Yankees/Astros)
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros ML
For the second day in a row, the Astros have a significant starting pitching advantage, the benefit of winning the ALDS in three games while the Yankees were pushed to the brink.
Luis Severino was limited to just 19 regular-season starts this year. He went 3-2 with a 3.22 ERA, and a .171 OBA in 50 1/3 combined innings over nine road starts. Severino shook off the rust from a 12-day layoff entering Game 3 of the ALDS, where he allowed three earned runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings to the Guardians. Meanwhile, Framber Valdez surpassed his previous career high in wins (11) by six victories while leading the league in complete games (three). Valdez was also durable while facing a league-high 827 batters and leading with a 0.5 HR/9 rate. His 3.0 BB/9 rate and 3.06 FIP were his best for a full season.
Severino's numbers against Houston are average at best, with an ERA approaching 4.00 in six career starts against the Astros. Those numbers are even worse in the postseason, as he has failed to last five innings in any of his three playoff starts against Houston, surrendering three home runs across those starts, with the Yankees going 0-3 in those games.
New York had better splits against lefties than righties all season, producing a better wRC+ (119 vs. 113), OPS (.768 vs. .745), and wOBA (.334 vs. 325). However, Valdez had a historic season, setting a single-season MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts. New York seemingly cannot generate any offense these days other than hitting the ball out of the ballpark, but Valdez will neutralize that strength with his elite HR/9 rate.
Bet: Houston Astros ML (-155 at DraftKings)
Bet $5, Win $200 on Any MLB Moneyline
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section - including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes - or head to more advanced strategy - like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor - to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.