Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, October 11th (2022)
The Cleveland Guardians were the only favorite to win their Wild Card series, as the Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres advanced as underdogs. Given the new structure of the MLB playoff format, the four teams that got byes figure to have a significant advantage with extra rest and having their pitching rotation lined up. But there will also be a “rest vs. rust†element of today’s games, as some will argue having six days off at this point of the season will be more of a detriment than an advantage.
How will today’s games play out?
Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves O/U
Braves southpaw Max Fried finished with an identical 14-7 record as last season, but his ERA was more than a half-run lower (2.48 compared to 3.04), and he was rewarded with his first All-Star game appearance this year. Fried finished the regular season second in BB/9, third in K:BB ratio, eighth in WHIP, ninth in innings pitched, and tenth in WAR. He does not allow hard contact, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel percentage. In addition, he has an elite chase rate (91st percentile) and an xSLG of .328, the second-lowest of his career.
We expect Suarez to match zeros with Fried, as he has held current Braves to a .219/.299/.353 slash line. He has allowed eight extra-base hits in 105 plate appearances and has more strikeouts (24) than hits allowed (23).
Each of Atlanta’s last four daytime playoff games at Truist Park has gone under the projected total, and we expect that trend to continue in this game.
Bet: Phillies-Braves Under 7 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees O/U
The Guardians easily have the least intimidating offense of all remaining playoff teams, as they ranked 18th in wRC+ in the regular season. However, the strength of their lineup is the perfect foil to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Cleveland struck out at the lowest rate of any team in the majors this season (18.3%) and figures to make Cole’s pitch count rise early. Cole backed up a 243-strikeout season (third in team history) with a franchise record of 257 strikeouts this season. Despite that, his 32.4% strikeout percentage was his lowest since 2017, so his .269 BABIP allowed figures to be tested by the pesky Guardians. In addition, New York’s bullpen is not as deep entering the playoffs after Aroldis Chapman was left off the roster.
We also like the Yankees’ chances of scoring runs against Cal Quantrill, who had a 3.53 ERA and .282 OBA in 13 road starts this season. New York ranked in the top two in the league in runs scored, slugging, and OPS, and it knows how to take advantage of the small confines at Yankee Stadium.
Bet: Guardians-Yankees Over 7 (-105 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.