Top MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 9th (2021)

Congratulations to Derek Jeter and Larry Walker on their inductions into Cooperstown yesterday. Their former teams could use their services right about now, as the Yankees and Rockies have nine consecutive games between them. Some bettors likely think of the Yankees as a highly frustrating team to wager on, but other bettors assuredly prefer their streaky nature. New York followed a 13-game winning streak with a four-game losing streak, then won two games in a row, and now have lost five straight. Are the Yankees due for another loss to the Blue Jays?

With just eight games on today’s slate, we trim down our selections to just two best bets, both of which involve the aforementioned Rockies and Yankees. It looks like I got swept up in yesterday’s induction after all!

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Thursday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 160-133-7 (+10.86 units) 

Rockies-Phillies UNDER 8.5 runs (-115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking for their fifth consecutive home win in their head-to-head series with the Colorado Rockies. These two teams have played many high-scoring games recently, as the over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 meetings in Philadelphia. However, we believe the teams are in for a lower-scoring battle tonight.

Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela (4-9, 4.16) has pitched much better of late, posting a 3.30 ERA in his last seven starts. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his last five road starts, including games against high-powered offenses like the Dodgers, Astros, and Brewers. He has just one win in ten road starts this year, but bettors should be much more confident backing him in a road start given his recent success. He allowed a .087 OBA in his last start, which just two other pitchers bested over the previous two weeks. In addition, his .519 OPS allowed in his previous two starts is 10th-best in baseball over that same two-week span. Senzatela has limited current Phillies hitters to a combined .218 OBA and .291 slugging percentage in 63 plate appearances.

The Phillies counter with Ranger Suarez (6-4, 1.38), who has been lights out since being moved to the starting rotation. Suarez is 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA in seven starts and has thrown at least five innings in each of his last three starts. He has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his four home starts this season.

The under is 4-0 in Senzatela’s last four starts against teams with a winning record, and the under has cashed in Colorado’s last five road games overall against winning teams. This total is inflated because of Senzatela’s poor numbers, but he has been a much-improved pitcher of late.

Toronto Blue Jays Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (-125)

The Toronto Blue Jays have been mashing lately, scoring at least five runs in seven consecutive games. Actually, they have been mashing all year, as their .786 OPS is the best in baseball. That number has improved to .837 over the last 15 days (entering Wednesday), which is the third-highest in the league in that span. The tandem of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Marcus Semien strike fear in opposing pitchers from the heart of the batting order, and they rank third and fourth respectively in home runs.

Semien could be in for another big day offensively, as his only hit in two career at-bats against Nester Cortes Jr. (2-2, 2.67) went for a home run. The Blue Jays have combined for a .348 OBA and .826 slugging percentage in 26 combined plate appearances against Cortes, and Cortes’ 3.72 ERA in August was his highest of any month. 

The under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings at Yankee Stadium between these teams, but Toronto’s offense should do their part in helping to buck that trend tonight.

MLB Prop Bets

• Salvador Perez Prop Bet Odds
• Jose Ramirez Prop Bet Odds
• Yasmani Grandal Prop Bet Odds
• Bryce Harper Prop Bet Odds
• Joey Gallo Prop Bet Odds

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.