It’s the final weekend of the first half! Sadly, that means a brief pause without any true baseball action, but with the All-Star festivities on tap next week, we shall surely be entertained. Speaking of which, what a Home Run Derby this is shaping up to be!
Anyways, back to today’s topic. There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways is No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it's as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether either team will score a run in the first inning. Especially when scoring is still lower than in previous seasons, it's more likely that a run is not scored, leading to prices generally being juiced towards the "under" taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you'll see!
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
There are plenty of series this weekend that are extremely important, but this may actually rank at the top of the list. Both of these are aspiring postseason contenders, yet need to start demonstrating more consistency winning games to ultimately get into the playoffs. A team taking three+ games in this four-game series could swing both team’s outlooks for this season dramatically, making it a slate of games to tune into.
Corbin Burnes rightfully draws most of the attention in Milwaukee, but don’t forget about Brandon Woodruff, who is a top-ten starter in his own right. The 29-year-old burst onto the scene last season with a dominant season (3.31 skill interactive ERA/SIERA, 4.7 fWAR), and he’s only added onto that success with a 31.9% strikeout rate, 25.5% K-BB, and 2.85 SIERA in 12 starts this season. Take out his first two starts of the season – different pitchers responded in unique ways to the shortened spring training – and those numbers improve to an absurd 36.2% strikeout rate, 30.5% K-BB, and 2.38 SIERA. Folks, those aren’t just elite numbers; they are numbers that very few pitchers can put up over any stretch. Regardless of the offense, he should be expected to pitch at an extremely high level.
Meanwhile, he may not be Woodruff, yet Giants starter Alex Wood is pretty productive in his own right. In 17 starts, the lefty sports a strong 3.45 SIERA, combining above-average K-BB numbers with the ability to induce ground balls on over 50% of the batted balls against him. The Brewers are a bottom-ten offense in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) against lefties, while Christian Yelich isn’t likely to play in this game due to a back injury; Oracle Park is also surprises home runs at the fifth-highest rate, per Baseball Savant. When you can get a combination of one ace-level pitcher, another above-average one, not dominant offenses, and a pitcher-friendly ballpark, it would sure seems as like a low-scoring game is in store. Expect that to be evident right out of the gate.
Bet: Brewers at Giants NRFI (-164 on FanDuel)
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Today is a great day for several reasons. After all, it’s Friday, we have a full slate of baseball games, and the sun rose. Most importantly, though, Sandy Alcantara pitches today!
The clear front-runner to win the NL Cy Young, Alcantara is mainly known for providing the Marlins with a lot of volume; his 130.1 innings pitched and 7.22 innings pitched per start both lead the league by a significant mark. However, don’t forget about the efficiency he can bring on a per-pitch basis as well. He may not rate out as well with most peripheral statistics as you’d expect due to a lack of an elite strikeout rate (22.4% K), but he’s historically been very difficult to barrel up (4.3%) due to his ability to have an extremely high ground-ball rate (56.6%), while he throws a lot of strikes (6.3% BB). That combination leads to a 3.33 projected ERA from THE BAT, which, if anything, could turn out to be too light. Expect continued success against a Phillies lineup still without Bryce Harper.
Alcantara will have to pitch well to keep the Marlins in this game; without Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler, Miami’s offense is reeling, ranking fourth-worst in wRC+ over the past 30 days. That’s great news for Philadelphia starter Kyle Gibson, who has had tremendous success (19.6% K-BB, .267 wOBA allowed) working the first time through the order this season. In a ballpark that limits home runs at a top-ten rate, per Baseball Savant, both of these pitchers are bound to have a lot of success here. The result? A smooth first inning.
Bet: Phillies at Marlins NRFI (-148 on FanDuel)
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
This season, we’ve been exclusively looking at NRFI bets, but, today, let’s change things up!
It’s been a disappointing season for the White Sox, but one thing has remained constant- they destroy left-handed pitching. For the season, the South Siders lead the league in wRC+ versus lefties, which makes sense considering their entire lineup consists of right-handed hitters. Twins starter Devin Smeltzer is, in fact, a lefty, and his 3.92 ERA comes with a concerning 4.87 SIERA, 8.8% K-BB, and substantial home run woes (1.96 HR/9). Facing a fearsome top of the lineup of Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu, it’s hard to see his good fortune continuing. Expect action from the very beginning.
If not, we can push our chips in with a Twins offense ranked 4th in wRC+, featuring Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa at the top of their lineup. White Sox starter Michael Kopech’s peripherals (4.71 SIERA, 10.7% K-BB), while he sat two MPH (92.1) lower than normal with his fastball in his last start. In fact, in his past six starts, he’s sporting an abysmal 5.9% K-BB and 5.29 SIERA; as someone starting for the first time in his career, you wonder if he’s starting to reach his limit. As someone who doesn’t induce ground balls at a high level, nor post strong K-BB numbers, it’s easy to see the Twins having instant success against him.
Honestly, can we get bonus points if both teams score in the first inning? Regardless, expecting a run to be scored right away is the very wise play here, something that isn’t particularly common in today’s game. For the sake of entertainment value alone, let’s hope for a shootout here.
Bet: White Sox at Twins YRFI (-120 on FanDuel)
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