Baseball is back in full action! Although we did have six games take place on Thursday, there’s nothing better to signify the start of the second half than a full slate of games. Alas, grab your popcorn, and enjoy the show! Anyways, back to today's topic.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways is No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it's as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether either team will score a run in the first inning. Especially when scoring is still lower than in previous seasons, it's more likely that a run is not scored, leading to prices generally being juiced towards the "under" taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you'll see! That being said, as the offense continues to pick up, that’ll change.
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Plenty of important series are taking place this weekend, though this one certainly ranks near the top of the list. Both the Guardians and White Sox are within striking distance of the AL Central, but one team taking control of this four-game series could have significant effects on each team’s trade deadline outlook and the overall postseason race.
If the White Sox are going to go on a second-half run, it all starts with getting improved contributions from starter Lucas Giolito. Fortunately, while his 4.69 ERA isn’t ideal, his underlying numbers (3.81 skill interactive ERA/SIERA, 18.6% K-BB) are still quite strong. As a pitcher whose main weakness is giving up the long ball, facing a Cleveland offense ranked dead-last in barrel rate could be excellent news for him. After ending the first half with a strong four-game stretch (3.38 SIERA), that should be expected to continue.
To win this game, the South Siders will need to get a strong performance from Giolito- they rank in the bottom-ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers, which you’d expect with an exclusively righty lineup. Even if Cal Quantrill’s underlying metrics (4.81 SIERA, 7.8% K-BB), he historically has been able to limit walks (career 7% BB). He induces chases (32.7%) at a high level, which is notable against an offense that expands the zone more than any other offense in baseball. These two pitchers each are perfectly set up to exploit each offense’s respective weakness, which, all together, should make this a lower-scoring affair. Particularly at a reasonable price, that ought to make the NRFI quite appealing here.
Bet: White Sox at Twins NRFI (-120 on FanDuel)
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
There’s nothing better to start off the second half than fading what consensus opinion urges you to believe. With a game total of seven runs, you wouldn’t expect many runs to be scored in Oakland tonight, but why not zig while others zag?
For the season, the Rangers have the third-highest wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, while Marcus Semien (135 wRC+) and Corey Seager (179 wRC+). This is one of the more underappreciated offenses in baseball right now, and the top-heavy nature of the lineup caters well to early scoring. Oakland starter Cole Irvin may boast a 3.21 ERA, yet his underlying peripherals (4.51 SIERA, 11.2% K-BB) wouldn’t back that up. At the same time, the combination of him being a fly-ball pitcher and not missing many bats is perfect for increasing the likelihood of a potential blowup inning. ZiPs projections (one of the top available projection systems on Fangraphs) project him for a 4.56 ERA the rest of the way, which would be pretty sensible based on how he’s faring in the general key predictors of future success.
On the other side, the A’s have the worst wRC+ in baseball, though, sadly, they could still prove to be a challenge for Rangers starter Spencer Howard. The former top prospect has been a below replacement-level pitcher in 20.2 MLB innings this year. The combination of concerns with his ability to strike batters out and limit home runs leads ZiPs to expect a 5.35 ERA for the rest of the season. I don’t know about you, but when two pitchers have an average projected ERA around 5.00, that doesn’t speak to such a highly-held expectation that no run comes to score in the first inning today. Heck, with Marcus Semien leading off, perhaps it comes on the first pitch! Regardless, pencil this as today’s unexpected high-scoring affair.
Bet: Rangers at A’s YRFI (+104 on FanDuel)
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