Will the Orioles ever lose again? Baltimore has now won nine straight games and suddenly has a .500 record. These are the type of “feel good” stories that make baseball so great, and here’s hoping for more wins ahead for them.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways is No Run First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it’s as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether either team will score a run in the first inning. Especially when scoring is still lower than in previous seasons, it’s more likely that a run is not scored, leading to prices generally being juiced towards the “under” taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you’ll see!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
The Marlins had been narrowing the gap for them in the wildcard race for a while. Unfortunately for them, after losing the first two games to the Pirates, that gap has widened again, making this a critical game for them.
They may not have ace Sandy Alcantara on the mound, but the Marlins still have to feel very confident that they can get back on track today. Pablo Lopez, by virtue of a 3.58 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 17.5% K-BB, has been a very reliable high-end #2 starter for Miami and has all the ingredients to continue to find success here. Whether it’s inducing whiffs (29.5%), limiting walks (7% BB), or getting ground balls (47.2%), he covers all bases, and he’s facing the offense scoring the third-fewest runs per game. Sign me up!
Meanwhile, without Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler, the Marlins offense has the fourth-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) over the past 30 days, and things only continue to get worse with those two sidelined from injury. If you give Pirates starter JT Brubaker some leeway for a tough start to the season, he has posted a 4.04 SIERA over his past 15 starts and is facing a bottom-ten team in runs above average against sliders this season- his slider is his clear top pitch. With both of the offenses struggling, the NRFI already becomes intriguing, but you add in the pitchers at hand, and it sure looks like a low-scoring game is coming in the Magic City.
Bet: Pirates at Marlins NRFI (-154 on FanDuel)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
In the first two games of this series, there have been 39 combined runs, including a 14-7 game that went 12 innings yesterday. Nevertheless, how does a change of pace from that sound?
The A’s, with the worst wRC+ in baseball, has been an absolutely dismal offense this season. That’s tremendous news for Rangers starter Jon Gray, who is having a career season with a 3.51 SIERA and 18.6% K-BB, even if he perhaps isn’t getting the recognition he deserves. Between a re-shaped slider and simply getting out of Colorado, there are plenty of reasons for his success, which will continue here.
The risk is associated in the bottom of the first, where the Rangers offense has been red-hot (9th in wRC+ over the past 30 days ). At the same time, they rank in the bottom five in on-base percentage for the season, making them an offense reliant on power. Against Oakland starter Paul Blackburn, who has induced a ground ball on 50% of the batted balls against him and has at least somewhat notable barrel suppression skills (81st percentile barrel rate allowed), that style of play most likely won’t work. Given how much of a “lock” Gray seems to be against the worst offense in baseball, you should gladly install faith in Blackburn, who can worm-burn his way to a strong outing here. They say everything is bigger in Texas. Well, besides the runs scored in the first inning here.
Bet: A’s at Rangers NRFI (-128 on FanDuel)
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
For the season, these two offenses rank in the bottom-ten in wRC+, while the Tigers score the fewest runs per game. That makes the NRFI a strong play regardless of the pitchers, but, in this case, all the stars align.
After a rough five-game stretch for Tigers’ budding starter Tarik Skubal, the lefty was, fortunately, able to get on track in his last start, posting a 2.88 SIERA and 25% K-BB ratio against the #1 offense against left-handed pitching (White Sox) this season. Overall, the lefty ranks in the top-15 in wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and for good reason; he strikes batters out (25.2% K), limits walks (6.5%), and induces ground balls (48.9%), all at an above-average clip. Against a Royals offense in the bottom-five in terms of hitting for power this season, there isn’t any reason not to expect a strong performance either.
Meanwhile, with a 4.25 ERA, it may seem like Brady Singer still hasn’t quite taken the step forward that the Royals were hoping for from their former first-round pick. However, that couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, with a 3.43 SIERA and 18.6% K-BB, the 25-year-old has been absolutely tremendous this season. The only quibble has been unexpected issues with the long ball (1.51 HR/9) this season, but Kansas City is a top-five park in terms of limiting home runs, per Baseball Savant, while no team hits for less power than Detroit. When these two teams meet, you can usually count on not having a lot of fireworks, and that couldn’t be more true here.
Bet: Tigers at Royals NRFI (-122 on FanDuel)
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