We were THIS close to witnessing the first true no-hitter of the season. Alas, despite pitching 8.2 hitless innings and having two strikes on Cal Mitchell, Miles Mikolas couldn’t quite finish the job, which is unfortunate, but it was still an exceptional performance for a Cardinals team that is starting to take a notable lead in the NL Central. Hopefully, we see something as special today.
There are many ways to bet on a baseball game. One of the most exciting ways, now, is No Runs First Inning Bets (NRFI). Really, it's as simple as it sounds; you can bet on whether a run will be scored by either team in the first inning. Especially at a time when scoring is at an all-time low, it's more likely than not that a run is not scored, leading to prices being juiced towards the "under" taking place. Even with that, the most logical bets are usually to side with the under, as you'll see here!
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Speaking of the Cardinals, this is a fun time for the Redbirds. Not only are they ten games above .500 and have a 2.5 game lead in the division, but they also get their ace back for this game.
That’s right, Jack Flaherty is finally back! It’s been a while since we have seen the 26-year-old fully healthy, so it’s easy to forget how talented he is. Since the start of the second half in 2018, the 26-year-old has struck out 29.3% of the batters he has faced, as well as a 20.9% K-BB and a 3.75 skill interactive ERA (SIERA). Now, he could be shaky in his first start back, but he also gets to face the offense with the third-lowest weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). Even though there is some risk baked in, the odds are still dramatically in his favor.
Last week, we harped on how special Pirates starter Roansy Contreras could be, and the same principles apply here. In his four starts since being called back up, the 22-year-old has a 19.8% K-BB and 3.43 SIERA, and he checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter. I mean, how many pitchers can sit 96-97 MPH with a fastball with two extra inches of vertical movement compared to average, allow it to play up due to a very low release height, as well as have a wipeout slider? Eno Sarris’ predictive stuff+ model agrees, giving him a 113.5 stuff+, well above the average rating (95) for a starting pitcher.
The Cardinals only have the league’s 13th-highest wRC+ against righties, rank in the bottom ten in isolated power (ISO), and also in the bottom three in barrel rate. Thus, in this case, we should gladly bet on such a talented young arm. Plus, add in that Busch Stadium is the third most-friendly ballpark for pitchers, per Baseball Savant, and it becomes clear that this is THE NRFI bet to make today.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
Sticking with the NL Central, it’s been a very rough go of late for the Brewers. Over the past 13 games, the Brew Crew have won just two times, and, as a result, have fallen behind in the division. In a crowded National League postseason race, this isn’t ideal.
Fortunately for Milwaukee, this is the time for their woes to come to an end. After all, in Corbin Burnes, they get to send out arguably the best pitcher in baseball. After setting the league on fire last year, he’s come back strong again with a 2.73 SIERA and 26% K-BB in twelve starts this season, and he has been utterly dominant (1.66) working the first time through the order. Even against a strong Mets offense, there are few stronger locks in Burnes coming through.
The main roll of the dice here comes from counting on a scoreless inning from Mets starter David Peterson. At the same time, he limits home runs by inducing a ground ball on over 50% of the batted balls against him and now gets to face a Brewers offense ranked in the bottom-five in wRC+ against lefties. Any time you can get a reasonable price for an NRFI in a game featuring Burnes, it’s hard to pass, and that is especially the case given some of Milwaukee’s recent struggles. It’s a bit more of an obvious play, but how could it not be included?
Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
To be honest, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more obvious NRFI than this one. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom-five in wRC+ this season, and now send their respective aces to the hill. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Let’s start with Luis Castillo, who will likely find himself as a major trade chip for the Reds at the deadline. The 29-year-old has performed well (3.82 SIERA) in seven starts since being delayed with an injury, and finally got his velocity (97.6 MPH) back to where it has been for him at his best. This is a pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls (54.9% career GB) and whiffs (13.9% swinging-strike rate), which is exactly what you’re looking for.
Zac Gallen, meanwhile, has seen the strikeout regression many expected after posting a single-digit swinging-strike rate last year, but he’s also limiting walks (6.7% BB) better than ever, leading to a still strong 16.7% K-BB. With a pure vertical arsenal, he has a rare ability to induce ground balls (47.2% GB) as well as weekly hit pop-ups/fly balls (11.5% infield-fly rate), leading to limited home runs and a generally low BABIP. Factor in tremendous effectiveness (22.2% K-BB) the first time through the order and a lot of trust can be instilled in the Diamondbacks’ talented righty.
Meanwhile, Chase Field also suppresses home runs at the fifth-highest rate, per Baseball Savant. These aren’t two prototypical pitchers, but they are extremely productive arms facing two bottom-five offenses, pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Add it all together, and the NRFI should be expected to hit here.
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