Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Friday, July 29 (2022)
We are heading out west for today’s top NFRIs as two lefties are set to duel in Anaheim. Then we head to the Bay Area, where the underlying stats point toward two quality outings from vastly underrated starters.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels 9:38 pm ET
Two lefties are set to square off tonight in Anaheim. Getting the ball first will be the Angels’ Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval has had a breakout campaign as he enters this start with a 3.64 ERA and has racked up 91 strikeouts across 84 innings pitched. However, Sandoval is the type of pitcher that will make you sweat for NRFIs. He has a 1.51 WHIP, and that has caused him trouble in the first inning this year. He’ll make his 17th start with a 5.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in the first inning. However, Sandoval has the potential to be dominant. He does not allow hard contact as he ranks in the top 30 percent of the majors in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Sandoval also has great swing-a-miss stuff, as shown by his strikeout totals. Overall, Sandoval is due for some positive regression despite his walks. His FIP is 3.04.
The Rangers are a team that Sandoval should have success against. The Rangers enter this game with the eighth lowest walk rate and the 11th highest strikeout rate in the majors. They also have not scored very much in the first inning as they rank 18th in first-inning runs per game. So look for Sandoval to start his outing strong.
On the other side, the Rangers will be throwing a lefty of their own in Martin Perez. Perez has been outstanding this season, and he’s fresh off an All-Star game selection. He was dominant in his first start of the second half and now enters this outing with a 2.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. It should be no surprise that he’s also been stellar in the first inning. Through 19 starts, he has a 1.42 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, averaging over a strikeout per inning in the first this year. The Marlins are also one of the slowest starting offenses in baseball, as they are second to last in first-inning runs per game.
Pick: NRFI -124
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants 10:15 pm ET
Marcus Stroman will toe the slab for the Cubbies this evening, and he’s looked exponentially better since returning from the injured list. In his last three starts, he’s allowed two earned runs and stuck out 14 batters in 14 innings of work. His first inning numbers are inflated due to a few rough outings early in the season, but overall he still old a 1.08 WHIP. He’s going to face a San Francisco that has been struggling to get off too fast starts lately. The Giants rank 20th in first-inning runs per game and have failed to score in the first in each of their last three games.
Opposing Stoman for the Giants is sabermetrics darling, Alex Cobb. All of Cobb’s underlying numbers point to him having a dominant season. He does not allow hard contact as he ranks in the top 25 percent in hard-hit rate and is among the top four percent in barrel rate. His ERA entering this start is 4.26, his xERA is 2.88, and his FIP is 2.94. So Cobb is overdue for a dominant outing, which could come tonight. However, we need him to be great for one inning, which he has been this season. Cobb has a 1.84 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in the first inning this year. He gets a Cubs team whose offense has not traveled well this season. They are fourth in first-inning runs per game a 0.69, but that average drops to 0.52 on the road. So with both of these pitchers trending in the right direction, the NRFI should be sweat-free.
Pick: NRFI -120
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.