Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Tuesday, August 16 (2022)
With 15 games on the slate tonight, finding NRFIs can be tough, but that is why you’ve got me. I’ve broken down my top two NRFI plays of the day. We started the week with a 2-1 day and are primed to build on our hot start today. So let’s dive into today’s picks.
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
We are going right back to the well here after Joe Musgrove and Sandy Alcantara cashed the NRFI for us yesterday. While tonight’s pitching matchup may not have as much star power to it, there may be more edges to each side. For the top of the first, rookie Edward Cabrera will be making his sixth start of the season. To this point, his electric stuff has translated well to the big leagues. He’ll enter this start with a 2.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. As you can imagine, he’s also been great in the first inning as he’s allowed just one run through six starts and holds a 28 percent strikeout rate. As for the Padres, last night’s scoreless top of the first only added to their rank of 29th in first-inning runs per game.
The bottom of the first will be tasked to lefty Sean Manaea. Manaea has had a rough go of it since the start of July, as he has an 8.20 ERA in his last seven starts. However, he is due for some slight positive regression as his xERA is 4.10 and his FIP is 4.30, which are both improvements on his season ERA of 4.76. Tonight he gets the best possible matchup to bounce back with as he faces a Marlins team that is dead last in first-inning runs per game, and they lead the majors in strikeout rate against lefties. Manaea has had some first-inning struggles this year, but his WHIP of 0.95 is also a good sign in this matchup.
Pick: NRFI -115
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox – 8:10 pm ET
This is not only the best pitching matchup on the slate but is one of the best pitching matchups we’re going to see this season. Dylan Cease, who has not given up more than three earned runs in a start since May 29th, will get the top of the first. While he has been the definition of lights out, the Astros order is no cakewalk. Houston comes into this contest fifth in first-inning runs per game on the road. However, Cease is the guy that can shut them down. He has a 3.13 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 33 percent strikeout rate in the first inning this season.
Now for the bottom of the first, we only have the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young award getting the ball. Justin Verlander has been as good as ever in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. He enters this start with a 15-3 record, a 1.85 ERA, and a 0.86 WHIP. He has been dynamite in the first inning this year as he holds a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 21 starts. The White Sox should not provide much resistance as they rank 24th in first-inning runs per game at home this year. This NRFI going down would be shocking.
Pick: NRFI -150
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