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Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/1)

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The last week of March gave us a small glimpse of what this year’s Major League Baseball season will be like, and so far it is full of surprises, from the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 4-0 start to the Houston Astros getting swept in four games at home by the New York Yankees.

Now the calendar turns to April, and the excitement will be at a fever pitch at plenty of ballparks today, as several fan bases get to partake in Opening Day. How does that weigh into our trio of MLB best bets?

Read on for our MLB best bets for Monday.

    Monday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Colorado Rockies (+166) vs. Chicago Cubs (-198) | O/U 7 (+100/-122) 

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto was not the only Japanese star pitcher signed in the offseason, as Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga looks to make as big of an impact as his fellow countrymate. Imanaga is known as a fly ball pitcher, but with the wind seemingly blowing in hard at Wrigley Field as evidenced by the low seven-run O/U, he is not likely to get burned by many balls leaving the yard. That is especially true as the Rockies hit just 70 home runs as a team on the road last season, which was tied with the Cleveland Guardians for the fewest in the majors.

    Chicago looks to ride the momentum of its first win, as it avoided a road sweep against the Texas Rangers yesterday. The Cubs will look to show why oddsmakers unanimously had them as slight favorites to win the NL Central. Imanaga pitched to a 2.80 ERA over 148 innings in Japan last year, and his ability to shut down a Rockies lineup that ranked dead-last in wRC+ against southpaws last season is a big reason we are laying the -1.5 runs with the favorites for maximum value.

    Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+116)

    Cincinnati Reds (+134) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-158) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110) 

    The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the most formidable 1-2 punches at the top of their rotation in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but they are excited to see what young lefty Cristopher Sanchez can add to the back of the rotation this year. Sanchez started out on fire last year with an ERA below 3.00 at the end of July, and he cut his walk rate down from 10% to 4% last season, finishing with the third-best walk rate of any qualified starting pitcher. His stuff also tends to fool most hitters, as he has an elite 34.8% chase rate, which helped him improve his his strikeout rate by 5% last year.

    The Cincinnati Reds looked far from impressive in taking two of three games at home against the Washington Nationals, as they needed back-to-back home runs with two outs in the ninth inning yesterday to claw out a series win. Philadelphia should find it much easier sledding against Cincinnati after a grueling series with Atlanta, and we expect the Phillies to get back to .500 in this series opener.

    Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+132)

    Detroit Tigers (+118) vs. New York Mets (-138) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105) 

    The New York Mets had one of the most disappointing homestands over the weekend, getting swept in three games by the Milwaukee Brewers by a combined 14-8. And while the Detroit Tigers are 3-0 after winning three one-run games against the Chicago White Sox, their offense was less than impressive after ranking in the bottom half of the league in wOBA and totaling a .276 BABIP.

    The Mets turn to offseason acquisition Sean Manaea for their first win, and Manaea is coming off the best K/9 rate of his career (9.8) while bouncing back and forth between the San Francisco Giants rotation and bullpen last season. Manaea finished last year strong with a 2.25 ERA in four September starts, and he has won half of his six starts while pitching to a sub-4.00 ERA in his career against Detroit. Mets fans may already be grumbling after getting swept to start the season, but Manaea will get them into the win column on Monday night.

    Pick: Mets Moneyline (-138)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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