Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/30)
Today was supposed to be an off-day in Major League Baseball as all teams were to prepare for their playoff matchups. However, rain in Atlanta last week forced a doubleheader between the Mets and the Braves today, and MLB could not have asked for more drama with these two games.
The winner of the first game of the doubleheader clinches a playoff spot, so both will treat it like a “win and in†scenario. If the teams split the doubleheader, both clinch playoff spots. If one team sweeps, they earn a playoff berth, and the last spot would go to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Because of those scenarios, I would advise backing the loser of the first game to win the second game (if sportsbooks release odds that quickly in between games), as the team that wins the first game will likely rest the majority of its starters having already clinched.
But who do we like to win the all-important first game? Read on for our top Mets-Braves MLB picks for Monday, September 30.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets (+130) at Atlanta Braves (-154) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)
The Braves have likely Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale locked and loaded for the second game of today's doubleheader in the event they lose the first game. But the confidence they are showing rookie Spencer Schwellenbach by pitching him in the first game says all you need to know about his ability, while allowing them to potentially save Sale for tomorrow's Game 1 of the next series.
Schwellenbach faced the Mets at home just six days ago, and allowed one earned run on three hits over seven brilliant innings. Schwellenbach induced a 28% CSW% rate in that start with a fastball-heavy arsenal (he threw his fastball 44% of the time). In his seven starts prior to that, Schwellenbach pitched to a 3.59 xFIP and had a 19.1% K-BB rate with a 110+ Pitching+ rating in that span, so he comes in red-hot, even if his strikeout numbers are down this month (20 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings this month).
The Mets have won each of Tylor Megill's last five starts, but his splits against elite teams are concerning. New York is 2-5 in Megill's seven appearances against playoff-bound teams (Atlanta is included in that) this season, and he pitched to a 3.47 ERA in that span. He also allowed multiple walks six times in that span, and a loss to the Braves on July 27 was one of four games he allowed four or more earned runs this season.
Mets fans will likely be the first ones to admit how nervous they are for this doubleheader, even though they only need one win, given how much of a “House of Horrors†Atlanta has been over the years. And in these tense situations with so much riding on the outcome, I will back the team with more playoff experience, and the one who had a five-game winning streak prior to Sunday’s loss.
MLB Pick: Braves Moneyline (-154)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.