Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/12)
The MLB season is in full swing, and we have a stacked 15-game schedule on Saturday. I've sifted through the pitching matchups and data, narrowing in on three best bets for today's action. Here are my three favorite MLB bets today.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) at Cincinnati Reds (-130) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
Let's get things started with this National League Central showdown between the Pirates (5-9) and the Reds (6-8). Andrew Heaney will toe the rubber for Pittsburgh, while Andrew Abbott makes his season debut for Cincinnati. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH.
I'm playing the Under 8.5 runs in this battle of left-handed Andrews. Starting with Heaney, he's looked sharp this season, entering the weekend at 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over two starts (12.0 IP). He just racked up 10 punchouts against the Yankees last time out, and now he draws a Reds club that has the ninth-highest K% (24.8%). As for Abbott, he's coming off of a solid 2024 campaign, where he logged a 3.72 ERA and 1.30 WHP over 138.0 innings.
Both of these offenses have been bottom-tier units this season. From a simple runs-per-game metric, the Reds are 19th (3.79), while the Buccos are 26th (3.43). Against left-handed pitching specifically, Cincinnati is 29th in wOBA (.226), 29th in wRC+ (37), and 23rd in ISO (.106). Pittsburgh is 27th (.243), 27th (52), and 28th (.078) in those respective categories. Runs should be at a premium in this one, so I'll take the Under.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Chicago Cubs (+150) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) | O/U 8.5 (-120/+100)
Let's head out West, where the Dodgers (11-4) are looking to build on a 3-0 series-opening win over the Cubs (9-7) on Friday. This National League battle features a pitching matchup between Chicago's Ben Brown and Los Angeles' Roki Sasaki. First pitch is set for 9:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA.
This will already be the fourth meeting between these organizations this season, as they squared off in Tokyo for a couple of games back in mid-March. Los Angeles has held Chicago to three or fewer runs in all three prior games, and the Cubs are averaging a measly 1.3 runs per game against the Dodgers this year.
Los Angeles' Sasaki started one of the games in Japan, holding the Cubs to one earned run on one hit and five walks over 3.0 innings. Obviously, the walks aren't inspiring, but the right-hander has lowered his free passes in his two subsequent starts (4, 2). The 23-year-old hasn't been working deep into games, but I actually think that benefits this wager on Chicago's team total to go Under. We'll get to see Los Angeles' bullpen quite a bit, and they come into this game ranked fourth in ERA (2.15) and opposing team batting average (.184), while sitting third in WHIP (0.96) and first in strikeouts (76). I'll take the Cubs to stay Under 3.5 runs tonight on the road.
Pick: Cubs Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-105)
Texas Rangers (+125) at Seattle Mariners (-150) | O/U 7.0 (-118/-102)
The MLB night wraps up in the Pacific Northwest with a divisional clash between the Rangers (9-5) and the Mariners (6-8). Seattle won last night's game 5-3, and they'll turn to Bryan Woo to make it two straight. Texas counters with Kumar Rocker in this AL West contest, which is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA.
I'm riding with the Rangers as underdogs tonight. After a horrendous season debut against the Reds (6 ER in 3.0 IP), Rocker bounced back with an excellent outing against the Rays (1 ER in 5.0 IP) last time out. I think he continues his hot streak against this lowly M's offense. Seattle is 25th in scoring (3.50 RPG), 29th in team batting average (.200), and 22nd in OPS (.648). Rocker also has a decent track record against Seattle, as their current roster is 1-for-11 (.091) against him.
On the other hand, Texas has owned Woo in the past, as they're slashing .310/.365/.569 against him over 58 at-bats. That's a .934 OPS over a relatively large sample size. Woo has been solid with a 3.75 ERA this season, but I do think there's value with the Rangers in this spot. They have plenty of offensive firepower, and as we know, it likely won't take much run support to outpace this underwhelming Mariners offense. Let's take a flier on Texas as underdogs.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (+125)