Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/11)
Let’s dive into our top MLB bets. There is a good slate of games to choose from, and we’ll look at some to play for this Thursday, April 11.
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Thursday’s MLB Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Mets (+142) at Atlanta Braves (-170) | O/U 9.5 (-115/-105)
Things looked bleak for the Mets early on in the season, but they’ve picked up as they’ve won three of their last five and look to win the rubber match in this series. After the offense was abysmal at the start of the season, it’s gotten better by scoring 22 runs and batting .297 in their last four games. Jose Quintana’s 2.61 ERA has been an excellent start to the season, although his six walks in 10.1 innings are not ideal.
The Braves’ offense has been red hot since Opening Day. They’re scoring the most runs per game and second most home runs per game, and that’s without Ronald Acuna Jr. going yard this year. Allan Winnan makes his season debut after getting a few starts last year. He had two starts against the Mets last year; the first, he went seven shutout innings, and the next, he allowed seven in 4.1 innings.
It should be closer to the ladder for the Mets against Winnan, and Nobody has been able to hold down the Braves offense
Pick: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-115)
Baltimore Orioles (-122) at Boston Red Sox (+102) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-102)
Baltimore has been a little inconsistent to start the season, but getting a sweep in Boston would put them in the right direction. The eyes will once again be on top prospect Jackson Holliday, who made his MLB debut last night, going 0-4 with an RBI. Grayson Rodriguez’s sophomore season is starting well as he has won both starts with a 2.19 ERA and a 5.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Red Sox got off to a nice start, but Baltimore is the first opponent they’ve faced that went to the playoffs last year. They haven’t looked good so far, including yesterday, when they blew a 5-0 lead. Garrett Whitlock has moved in and out of the rotation throughout his career. Last year, he had a career-worse 5.15 ERA, but he has had a fantastic start to 2024 with a 0.96 ERA.
Those starts for Whitlock were against the Mariners and Angels. He sees a much better lineup today, and with Rodriguez on the mound, Baltimore is in a good spot to pull out the brooms.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-122)
Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Cincinnati Reds (+105) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-102)
The Brewers’ offense has been phenomenal to start the season. They are third in runs per game after finishing 17th, and the power is there as they lead in home run percentage after finishing 26th last year. With Corbin Burnes now in Baltimore, Freddy Peralta moves into that ace spot, and he’s excelled so far with a 2.33 expected ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate.
There were high expectations coming into this season for the Reds as this young roster was close to making the playoffs. It’s still early in the year, but the team hasn’t shown they’re ready for that next step, being 6-6 in what could be a competitive National League Central. Nick Martinez has been benefitting run support in his first two starts, including the last one, where he allowed five earned against the Mets in a 9-6 win.
Peralta hasn’t seen much in this Cincinnati lineup, but in the limited at-bats, they’re hitting .150 with a 37% strikeout rate.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-125)