Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/18)
Let's dive into our top MLB bets. There is a good slate of games to choose from, and we'll look at some to play for this Thursday, April 18.
Thursday's MLB Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians (+105) at Boston Red Sox (-125) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
Boston needs a win today if they want to at least salvage a split against the Guardians. The American League East is once against looking like the toughest division, as each team is above .500, so although the Red Sox are last, they aren't far off the pace. While it's been a decent year for Boston, the hitting has been inconsistent, and the bullpen has been awful, but the starting rotation has been fantastic with a league-leading 2.03 ERA. It looks like it'll be bullpen day as reliever Brennan Bernardino will get the ball, and as mentioned, the bullpen has been terrible with a 4.11 ERA.
The Guardians’ offense has helped them win their last three games by scoring 24 runs. However, in two of those, they've needed every bit of it because their pitching hasn't been great by forcing them to play two extra-inning games. Cleveland will likely need to go to their bullpen early with Carlos Carrasco on the mound. They don't like him to see the lineup more than twice, especially when that BABIP jumps up to .417.
We'll see the offense go off with how each team will plan their pitching.
Pick: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-105)
Miami Marlins (+124) at Chicago Cubs (-148) | O/U 8 (+100/-120)
The offense has been the Cubs' best asset early in the season, as they are fifth in ISO eight in wOBA. This is coming even with slow starts by Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson. Jameson Taillon will get his first start of the season coming off the IL, and he would like to shake off his awful first season on the North Side where he went just 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA.
It looks like it will be another long season in Miami as the Marlins have the worst record coming into today. They have been bad from both ends; allowing the second-most runs while collecting the second-fewest hits. They made A.J. Puk a starter, but it is not going well; he lacks control with a 24.1% walk rate, and if he can improve on that, he might be much better, as he can force hitters to chase.
That will be tough against Chicago, as they are sixth in walk percentage, so they should be able to get to Puk.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-148)
Los Angeles Angels (+136) at Tampa Bay Rays (-162) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-102)
The Rays are playing very un-Rays-like to start the season. The offense hasn't been great, mainly due to Yandy Diaz batting just .197 with a .282 SLG and Randy Arozarena batting .169. The pitching has been lackluster, mainly due to injuries, so you hope as they get healthy, it will help carry this team. Ryan Pepoit has been Tampa's worst starter, with a 5.40 ERA through three starts. He has a high-velocity fastball and can blow it by batters, but secondary pitches are seeing too much of the plate and he's paying the price.
The Angels are sitting at .500, but that's good enough for second in the AL West. Their offensive numbers are very similar to the Rays’, including their identical .244 average. However, few hitters other than Mike Trout are hitting well, including Taylor Ward and Logan O'Hoppe. Griffin Canning has only faced the AL East so far this season, and he has been rocked in each start and has allowed at least four earned runs in each one..
We've seen nine runs or better in each game in this series, and with the pitching matchup, it'll continue
Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-118)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: