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Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/3)

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The only three undefeated teams left in Major League Baseball (Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers) all hail from the Central Divisions as we head into a full mid-week slate of games.

Ten of today’s 15 games are played in the afternoon window, so be sure to get your bets in early.

Read on for our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

    Wednesday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Kansas City Royals (+138) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-164) | O/U 7 (-120/-102) 

    This Royals-Orioles series finale has one of the lowest totals on the day’s slate, and perhaps with good reason, considering how good Orioles ace Corbin Burnes was on Opening Day. Burnes’ 11 strikeouts in his Baltimore debut were the most on Opening Day by an Orioles pitcher since Mike Mussina in 1998, and per OptaSTATS, he was the first pitcher to have 10+ strikeouts and allow one or fewer hits in a team’s first game of the season since 1934. Because of that start, Burnes enters the day ranked ninth in FanGraphs’ Stuff+ among starting pitchers, but we are instead making a contrarian play, as both offenses have performed well to this point in the season.

    Kansas City has scored four or more runs in three consecutive games, and is led by Bobby Witt Jr., who entered yesterday with a 1.188 slugging percentage. Meanwhile, Baltimore scored 31 runs through the first four games before getting stymied yesterday, and should take a patient approach against Royals southpaw Cole Ragans, who issued three walks in his Opening Day start.

    Prior to yesterday’s game, the Over had cashed in 53.3% (57-50-10) of Baltimore’s non-division games since the start of last season, and we expect it to be the right side in this series finale.

    Pick: Over 7 (-120)

    New York Yankees (-116) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-102) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-104) 

    When the Yankees won the series opener against the Diamondbacks, they improved to 5-0 for the first time since 1992. And those who were banking on a bounceback season from Carlos Rodon were likely not surprised by his one earned run allowed over 4 1/3 innings in his first start. However, that outing was not the most encouraging considering he labored through 87 pitches and issued three walks while striking out four.

    Rodon’s fastball averaged 0.4 mph faster than last season, and his Stuff+ rating on the pitch was rated 119 in his first start compared to 106 last season. However, we expect him to run into trouble against a Diamondbacks lineup known for making contact, led by Ketel Marte, whose .383 OBP at home last season ranked in the top 15 of all MLB players. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly should enter with plenty of confidence in this home start. Kelly entered this season with a 3.17 ERA and a 24.3% K% in his career at home compared to a 4.48 ERA and 19.6% K% on the road. He is also coming off a season where he pitched to a 2.59 ERA and a 29% K% in 93 2/3 innings at Chase Field, and followed that up with one run allowed on three hits in 6 2/3 innings against the Rockies. With a red-hot Kelly on the mound, Arizona should not be this big of underdogs.

    Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-102)

    Boston Red Sox (-142) vs. Oakland Athletics (+120) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110) 

    Anytime we can get a favorite at shorter than -150 moneyline odds against the lowly Athletics, we will be inclined to lay the odds, as Oakland is a great bet to lead the league in losses this season. The Athletics have absolutely no homefield advantage to speak of as the fan base protests against ownership looking to move the team, and the Red Sox did well to split with the AL West contender Seattle Mariners in the four-game series to begin the season.

    Every Red Sox starting pitcher threw at least five innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in the first four game series, and Nick Pivetta led all of them in Stuff+ (125). In fact, per Ahaan Rungta, Pivetta was one of two starting pitchers entering April with a Stuff+ grade of 130 or higher on both their four-seam fastball and off-speed pitch in their first start. And since the All-Star Break last season, he has pitched to a 3.36 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. We would not put anyone off backing the Red Sox on the runline for better value, but their -142 odds against one of MLB’s worst teams with a pitcher as hot as Pivetta are not too shabby.

    Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-142)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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