Top MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (10/1)
Though the official start of the Major League Baseball postseason is today, there was certainly a playoff feel surrounding yesterday’s Mets-Braves doubleheader. However, we are ready to go with an action-packed slate for the next three days as the four Wild Card series get underway at 2:30 p.m. ET today.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, October 1.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 hits allowed (+110)
As surprising as it is that Detroit is in the postseason while facing a team with loads of playoff experience, it should not be this big of an underdog with Tarik Skubal on the mound.
Skubal became the third Tigers pitcher to win the AL Pitching Triple Crown, finishing with a league-best 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and a 2.39 ERA. Detroit is 7-2 in Skubal's last nine starts with a +29 run differential in that span, and is 4-2 in his last six starts against teams in this year's playoff field.
Houston's lineup is potentially facing a massive void with Yordan Alvarez missing the final week of the regular season with a knee sprain. Considering Alvarez is slashing .362/.411/.617 against southpaws this season, his absence would make the Astros lineup much less intimidating.
There are some pitchers who look rusty on extended rest and some pitchers who thrive when pitching on six days or more of rest, and Skubal is one of those pitchers who elevates his game in those situations.
When pitching on six-plus days of rest, Skubal has pitched to a 2.90 ERA and 0.953 WHIP, compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.016 WHIP on normal rest. The lefty has allowed four or fewer hits in seven of his previous nine starts, and while his two strikeouts in a road June start against Houston is concerning, that is mitigated by his career-best 34% hard-hit rate allowed, and the best BABIP (.273) since his rookie year.
Cole Ragans Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
The Orioles lineup is the healthiest it has been in quite some time with the recent returns of Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle from the IL. However, this is still a Baltimore squad that strikes out at a high clip, with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) in home games against southpaws over the second half of the season.
Cole Ragans finished fifth in the majors with 223 strikeouts this year, and enters having recorded seven-plus strikeouts in six of his previous nine starts. I expect him to use his devastating changeup, which induces a 47.8% whiff rate, to keep Orioles hitters off balance all game.
Baltimore ranked 13th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and batting average against left-handed pitchers in September, so Ragans should not be a victim of a short leash in this first postseason outing. He also benefits from a full week off having pitched last Tuesday, so I expect there to be extra juice in the tank this afternoon.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.