Top MLB Player Prop Odds & Picks for Friday, April 8th (2022)
There were a lot of great individual and team performances on Opening Day yesterday, including Tyler O’Neill racking up five RBIs in the Cardinals’ 9-0 win over the Pirates. As the night carried on, we saw Yu Darvish go six no-hit innings against the Diamondbacks. But the Padres were unable to close out the Snakes as Seth Beer hit a walk-off three-run home run in the ninth to bring Arizona the 4-2 win. Framber Valdez dazzled in his season debut with 6.2 innings of shutout baseball as the Astros beat the Angels 3-1 as underdogs. It’s going to be an incredible season and I think I speak for all of us in saying that it’s good to have baseball back in our lives.
We missed the first two player props from yesterday’s picks with Jace Peterson coming in under 0.5 total bases (-155) and Shane Bieber missing his 6.5 strikeout total (-105) by three punchouts. We rebounded by cashing the under on Daulton Varsho’s 0.5 hit total at +185. The plays finished 1-2 and down 0.15 units. Here’s what I’m locking in for today:
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
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Anthony Rizzo O/U 1.5 Total Bases
It’s only right to start with the earliest game on the MLB schedule today that sees Nathan Eovaldi go for the Red Sox while the Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole in the Bronx.
Nathan Eovaldi went 11-9 in 2021 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. When he was away from Fenway, the right-hander saw his ERA increase to 4.21 and his WHIP increased to 1.30.
Anthony Rizzo has faced Eovaldi nine times in his career and posted a .556 batting average and .889 slugging percentage. He has five hits against the Red Sox hurler, with three of them being doubles. The wind will be blowing to dead center around 11.5 mph this afternoon, so there’s a great chance we can collect our two total bases (and maybe more) on one swing of the bat. It helps that Rizzo will be slotted at the top of the order and protected by the rest of the power hitters that the Yankees have. He should get plenty of pitches to drive and I like Rizzo to pick up at least two total bases in the season opener.
Bet: Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 via DraftKings)
Randy Arozarena O/U 1.5 Total Bases
We’ll stay in the A.L. East for our second player prop as the Rays open up the season in Tampa against the Orioles. John Means will toe the rubber for Baltimore while Shane McClanahan goes for Tampa Bay.
John Means is a lefty who’s the clear ace of Baltimore’s pitching staff, but that’s not saying much considering the rest of the rotation isn’t very good. Despite the rest of the staff’s woes, Means has been a bright spot in the organization and he’s looking to keep pace with his 2021 season, where he posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Those are quality numbers, especially in the vaunted A.L. East. But Means saw a sharp decrease in productivity when facing off against the Rays in 2021. He made five starts against Tampa Bay and posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Rays torched him for 16 runs and blasted six home runs. More specifically, Randy Arozarena has found a lot of success against the lefty. Arozarena is 6-13 (.462) against him with a pair of doubles and two long balls. With the success that the team has as a whole, the lineup should roll over plenty of times and Arozarena will have multiple opportunities to reach at least two total bases.
Bet: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125 via DraftKings)
Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Hits Allowed
We’re in for a pitcher’s duel in San Francisco with Logan Webb going for the Giants and the Marlins opting for Sandy Alcantara. Both pitchers are high on the Cy Young list with Webb at +1700 and Alcantara at +1600.
Logan Webb had a career year in 2021, posting an 11-3 record to go along with a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. When you look at his home splits, the ERA came down to 1.96 and his WHIP was 0.96.
The Marlins were one of the worst offensive teams in the league in 2021 as they had a team batting average of .233 (28th). They were ranked 29th in both OBP at .294 and overall runs scored at 623. Miami’s offense was brutal last year. Now, they did make a couple of additions in Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia in hopes to spark the offensive production. And they very well might. But not this afternoon. Over 22 at-bats for the Marlins against Webb, including Soler and Garcia, this roster has gone just 1-22. It’s a smaller sample size, but Webb has dominated them and with his impressive home stats, I like him to hold Miami to less than five hits today.
Bet: Logan Webb Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120 via DraftKings)
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