Top MLB Player Prop Odds & Picks for Thursday, April 7th (2022)
It’s one of the best days of the year as America’s pastime returns to action! Today’s schedule was originally slated to feature nine games, but we’ve already had two games canceled due to inclement weather with Yankees/Red Sox and Mariners/Twins being wiped out. No worries though as there’s still plenty of games to narrow in on and lock in some player props. Here’s what I’ll be betting on Opening Day:
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
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Jace Peterson O/U 0.5 Total Bases
The Brewers take on the Cubs at Wrigley field in the first game of the 2022 season. It’s a pitching matchup featuring Cy Young hopeful Corbin Burnes and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks.
Kyle Hendricks is coming off of his worst statistical season on the mound where he posted a 4.77 ERA over 181.0 innings of work. He allowed a career high 9.9 hits per nine innings as well as a WHIP of 1.35. The veteran right-hander had a K/9 rate of 6.5, which was his lowest since his rookie season in 2014. Hendricks got rocked in Spring Training this season, allowing 12 earned runs over 11.1 innings pitched and giving up 4.8 home runs per nine innings.
Jace Peterson is expected to get a good amount of playing time in the infield this season for the Crew. He’s coming off of a season where he played 94 games for Milwaukee and slashed .247/.348/.714 with six homers and 31 RBI’s. The key stat for this prop bet is Peterson’s numbers against Hendricks. He’s 5-14 against Hendricks with two doubles, a home run, and a pair of RBI’s. His .357 average is the highest amongst his teammates with at least 10+ at-bats against Hendricks. There’s an x-factor in play as well today with the wind expected to be blowing between 10-15 mph out to right-center. Any deeper fly balls may have a chance to carry over the wall and into the bleachers. I like Peterson to record at least one total base on Opening Day.
Bet: Jace Peterson Over 0.5 Total Bases (-155 via DraftKings)
Shane Bieber O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
The Guardians travel to Kansas City for their opener this season in a pitching matchup between Shane Bieber and Zack Greinke.
Bieber won the Cy Young award in 2020 and followed that up with a season where he made just 16 starts for Cleveland. He dealt with injuries for a good portion of the year, but still managed to post a 3.17 ERA over the 16 outings. Despite having some injury issues in 2021, Bieber struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings and sat down 134 hitters via the punchout.
Bieber is a strikeout machine. He ranked in the 94th percentile in K% last season and posted a Whiff% in the 97th percentile amongst his peers. He got whiffs at least 40% of the time when he threw a curveball, slider, or cutter in 2021. 6.5 strikeouts seems a little low to me for an ace like Bieber. The only question mark would be how long Terry Francona will ride Bieber today. But if he’s in the zone and getting outs, I would expect Francona to let him work. Bieber should get plenty of opportunities for strikeouts against a relatively young lineup in Kansas City. Take the over on 6.5 strikeouts.
Bet: Shane Bieber Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105 via DraftKings)
Daulton Varsho O/U 0.5 Hits
The finale of today’s MLB slate is an N.L. West matchup between the Padres and Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Madison Bumgarner gets the nod for Arizona while San Diego counters with Yu Darvish.
For Arizona, this season is all about developing their young talent and hoping their roster can take a step in the right direction. They won’t be competing in the West against rosters like Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco. One of the players they will hope to see improve is Daulton Varsho. Varsho’s an outfielder/catcher who slashed .246/.318/.755 in 2021 with 11 long balls and 38 RBI’s.
The key stat here will be the head-to-head matchups with Darvish. Varsho is 0-7 against Darvish with three strikeouts. Against righties overall, he saw his average drop to .228 in 2021. And finally, Varsho is coming off of a Spring Training where batted just .182 with six hits over 37 plate appearances. I like him to go hitless in the opener tonight for a plus-money payout.
Bet: Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 Hits (+185)
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