Top MLB Playoff Betting Picks for Thursday, October 7th (2021)

The two wild card games are in the books, as the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers earned their way into the Divisional Series. Today’s playoff action is centered around the two American League series, which features a matchup of two AL East teams and a series opener between the White Sox and Astros, who were each the class of their divisions for most of the season. Chicago and Houston are on equal footing as both had the same amount of rest heading into Game 1. In contrast, the Rays have a significant advantage over the Red Sox, who had to use their top two pitchers (Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi) in the last three days to secure their playoff positioning and to advance this far. So who has the upper hand in both ALDS Game 1s?

Here are my best bets for Thursday’s ALDS action. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 184-152-8 (+15.61 units) 

Chicago White Sox ML (+125)

At one point in the not-so-distant past, Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69) was the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. However, Lynn missed two weeks from the end of August to mid-September with inflammation in his right knee and then became a forgotten man since he was not the innings-eater he was early in the season. Lynn completed six innings just once in his last five starts, after throwing six or more innings in 13 of his first 23. However, Lynn had three spectacular outings out of four to end the season, with one earned run allowed or less in those three starts. Thus, it appears as if the knee inflammation will not be a concern today.

Lynn has appeared in 26 career playoff games between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees, with a 5-4 record and a 4.80 ERA in that span. He is opposed by Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16), who is making his 15th postseason appearance. McCuller Jr. is 1-2 with a 3.28 ERA in his playoff career. He pitched well in two starts (both wins) against the White Sox this year, allowing three earned runs in 13 combined innings. McCullers Jr. has shown a propensity to beat elite teams, as he was 5-0 in his only five decisions against playoff teams this season.

That being said, we like Lynn’s chances to hold down the fort through six innings and keep Houston’s offense at bay. Chicago has a massive advantage in the bullpen from the fifth or sixth inning on, with Michael Kopech, Liam Hendriks, and Craig Kimbrel rested and ready to nail down the final innings. The White Sox offense also received a great piece of news as Jose Abreu tested negative for COVID-19, and his 30 home runs and 117 RBI will be back in the heart of the lineup.

The Astros went 5-2 against the White Sox this year and have won their last four games in Houston. Thus, this is a contrarian play with the belief that Lynn will be the better of the two Lance’s in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs (+130)

The Tampa Bay Rays’ reward for winning 100 games (five more than the next best American League team) is facing a weary Red Sox team throwing their No. 3 starter in Game 1 of the ALDS. Meanwhile, the Rays had the luxury of setting up their rotation the way they wanted it but certainly did not coast into the playoffs as they gave the Yankees everything they had in a series win in the Bronx to end the regular season.

Tampa Bay clearly trusts lefty Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43), as last year, he became the first player ever to make his MLB debut in the postseason. The electrifying lefty pitched to a 2.65 ERA over his final seven starts and also pitched to a 2.81 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this year. However, manager Kevin Cash will remove McClanahan at the first sign he is getting into trouble and utilize a stable of relievers that are the best in baseball.

Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74) faced Tampa Bay four times this year, going 1-1 with a 4.71 ERA. Rodriguez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. In the lone start he didn’t, he was roughed up for six earned runs and eight hits in 3.2 innings in a home start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay went 11-8 against Boston head-to-head this year but are 7-2 in their last nine home games against the Red Sox. In addition, Tampa Bay has won 11 of their previous 15 meetings overall, and the fact that they are the more rested bunch playing at home gives them a significant advantage in Game 1.

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