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Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/20)

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Yesterday’s NLCS and ALCS games were polar opposites, but each was thrilling in their own way, and both series are now tighter because of their results.

The Arizona Diamondbacks earned the first walk-off win of this postseason with a 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies. With his ninth-inning single, Ketel Marte joined Luis Gonzalez (2001 WS Game 7) and Tony Womack (2001 NLDS Game 5) as the only Diamondbacks hitters with walk-off postseason hits. In the ALCS, the Houston Astros again used an offensive onslaught to beat the Texas Rangers 10-3 and tie the series at two games apiece. 

What are the best wagers for ALCS Game 5 and NLDS Game 4?

    Friday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Houston Astros (+100) at Texas Rangers (-118) | O/U 9 (-102/-120) 

    Houston was one of three teams to win 51+ road games in the regular season, and it saved its biggest two road wins for the last two days. Houston’s Game 3 victory denied Texas from tying four other teams for the longest playoff winning streak (eight games) within a single postseason, and now the Astros, with all their postseason experience, have likely put doubts in the Rangers’ minds if they can still pull this series out after giving home-field advantage back to Houston.

    The Astros have won eight of their nine games at Globe Life Field and continued the success of their three-game road sweep of the Rangers from Sept. 4-6, where they outscored Texas 39-10, outhomered the Rangers 16-6, and out-hit them 50-22. 

    Leadoff man Jose Altuve entered Game 3 slashing .160/.192/.280 in the postseason. His struggles were a microcosm of why Houston was struggling offensively as a whole, but he responded with his 25th postseason home run on Wednesday (second only behind Manny Ramirez- 29), and the move to Globe Life Field seems to be exactly what he needed to get going offensively. In the regular season this year, Altuve slashed .313/.371/.969 in seven road games against the Rangers, hitting seven home runs in the process. 

    We are not worried about Jordan Montgomery’s 6 1/3 innings of shutout baseball in Game 1, as the Astros have the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching (117 wrC+) since the start of 2021. We also expect another strong outing from veteran Justin Verlander, who has a Stuff+ grade of 105 through 12 2/3 postseason innings thus far. Verlander has held current Rangers hitters to a combined .614 OPS before Game 1 with a current 42:6 K:BB ratio. And he is backed by an Astros bullpen that entered the shift to Globe Life Field with a 1.27 ERA, .130 OBA, a perfect 8-for-8 in save opportunities and had held opponents to 4-for-47 with runners in scoring position over the last two postseasons.

    The Astros won a whopping 68.4% of their games (26-12) as road underdogs this season, and we expect them to finish another three-game sweep at Globe Life Field tonight. 

    Pick: Astros Moneyline (+100)

    Philadelphia Phillies (-134) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+114) | O/U 9.5 (-118/-104) 

    The Phillies entered Game 3 with a +15 home run differential in the postseason, which was on pace for the all-time record. In addition, they had been slugging .575 as a team, the highest in postseason history to that point. However, all it took to silence Philadelphia’s bats, who were largely responsible for the best run differential in MLB postseason history through eight games (+33), was a heroic effort from Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt and a change of scenery.

    The shift to Chase Field should not be understated, as several warning-track balls were likely a product of the stadium’s home run suppression (-5% HR rate per BallPark Pal). There is a reason that the Under has cashed in each of Arizona’s last five home games.

    The fact that Arizona is still alive down 2-1 in the series is astonishing, given its 3-for-15 batting with runners in scoring position and one stolen base despite finishing second in the regular season in that category. 

    The pitching matchup suggests runs should be scored, as Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez is making his first postseason start, while Arizona’s Joe Mantiply opens a bullpen game. However, Sanchez finished the regular season with a career-low 3.44 ERA and career-high in strikeouts (96), and he should be able to at least get through the batting order at least one time unscathed, given that he ranks in the 95th percentile or better in ground ball percentage, chase percentage, and walk rate. Yesterday’s starter, Ranger Suarez, lowered the ERA of a rotation that had pitched to a 1.55 ERA with a 51:4 K:BB ratio in the first eight games of the postseason, and Sanchez has a great chance to improve those numbers.

    Entering Game 2, Mantiply held left-handed batters to a combined .185/.209/.231 slash line, which will come in handy when facing Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the top of the first inning. Arizona held Philadelphia scoreless yesterday over the first four innings, which was the only four-inning span at that point where the Phillies had not scored a run in the postseason. 

    This is likely a contrarian play, given Sanchez’s postseason inexperience and Arizona’s 18th-ranked bullpen in the regular season in terms of ERA. But the pitcher-friendly Chase Field will make all the difference in keeping this game under the projected total.

    Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (-104)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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