Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/16)
Get out of work early, because we’ve got two MLB Postseason matchups tonight!
The Texas Rangers will take on the Houston Astros in Game 2 of the ALCS at 4:37 pm ET. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will begin the NLCS with Game 1 at 8:07 pm ET.
I’ve got a few best bets to consider for these matchups. Let’s get right to it!
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Monday’s Best MLB Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Pitching matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Framber Valdez
The Texas Rangers earned a Game 1 victory with a terrific performance from Jordan Montgomery. Nathan Eovaldi will try to mimic that performance today.
Eovaldi allowed a .144 ISO and wOBA of .291 against 630 batters this season. However, he allowed a .170 ISO and wOBA of .324 to 344 righties. He was worse against righties this year and will take on an Astros team that should have six righties in the lineup.
Those righties have hit a .153 ISO and wOBA of .316 over the last 30 days, which isn’t great.
Meanwhile, it’ll be Framber Valdez on the mound for the Astros. Valdez has struggled over the last month, allowing a .341 wOBA. Valdez is a left-handed pitcher, giving up a .341 wOBA to his previous 97 batters. He’s typically worse against lefties, but will only face three lefties in the Rangers lineup today.
Valdez has walked 12.4% of batters in the last month but has also earned nearly 59% of ground balls in that time frame. He can escape damage with double plays when he gets ground balls.
With the Rangers’ lineup hitting a .076 ISO and wOBA of .282 against lefties in the last month, I’ll take the Under for this game.
Bet: Under 8.5 (-122)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching matchup: Zac Gallen vs. Zack Wheeler
Zac Gallen grew up in South Jersey. He wasn’t a Phillies fan, but most of his friends are. and he’ll try to send his friends and family home unhappy tonight.
Gallen has held teams to a .115 ISO and wOBA of .300 over the last month. He’s also earned 47.4% of ground balls, much higher than his 41.9% of ground balls throughout the season.
He’ll take on a Phillies lineup that has hit a .251 ISO and wOBA of .355 over the last 30 days against righties. Philadelphia has a high strikeout rate of 24%. Gallen will have his moments to shine, but when righties connect in that Phillies lineup, it could be costly. Gallen has allowed a .318 wOBA with low-ground balls, high-fly balls, and line drives over the last 30 days.
Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos are the Phillies hitters to watch out for.
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler will get the call for the Phillies. He’s struck out 28.8% of batters last month, holding a .099 ISO and wOBA of .245. Wheeler has only allowed a high line drive rate to righties, but there are no real blemishes.
He’ll face a Diamondbacks lineup with four batters hitting an ISO of .145 or worse against righties and five batters hitting a wOBA of .299 or worse.
The Phillies match up better at home.
Bet: Phillies ML (-162)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
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