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Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/9)

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After the four teams remaining in the National League Division Series had a day off yesterday, they are set to resume play with each of their Game 2’s tonight. Those who thought an NLCS matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers was a foregone conclusion were likely shocked to see the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks victorious in Game 1. What is in store for the second games?

    Monday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Philadelphia Phillies (+134) vs. Atlanta Braves (-158) | O/U 8 (-115/-105) 

    Philadelphia beat Atlanta 3-0 in Game 1, the first time the Braves were shut out at home since August 28, 2021. The Phillies have won 14 of 15 Game 1’s since 2008 and seven straight (6-0 under Rob Thomson). Atlanta has never beaten Philadelphia in a postseason series and would take a massive step towards that by evening the series tonight.

    Philadelphia’s Game 1 shutout of Atlanta was no small feat, considering the Braves had the highest team slugging percentage in baseball history and tied for the most home runs in a season. While it took seven Phillies pitchers to piece together the 27 outs, we expect righty Zack Wheeler to go deep into the game and give the bullpen some rest.

    Wheeler has been unlucky in amassing a 2-3 record in his seven postseason starts, as he has pitched to a 2.55 ERA and minuscule 0.732 WHIP in that span. Though Wheeler is coming off a year where he produced his highest FIP (3.15) since 2020, he still ranks in the 87th percentile or better in barrels, xERA, average exit velocity, and walk rate. And he is the perfect foil to the power-hitting Braves lineup, having not allowed a home run in his last 23 2/3 innings.

    Braves southpaw Max Fried was dominant down the stretch in the regular season, winning all five decisions of his seven starts while pitching to a 2.59 ERA. Fried should neutralize two of Philadelphia’s biggest bats, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, as left-handed hitters have a .205 OBA against him this year. More importantly, Fried induces ground balls at an astronomical rate against lefties, with a 9.00 GO/AO ratio in that split.

    We especially love the Under in this matchup, as Fried’s .258 xwOBA and 2.75 xERA were the best of his career, and his .311 xSLG and .216 xBA were his best in a full season (excluding 2020). Philadelphia has seen the Over cash in 30 of its last 56 games, and Atlanta has cashed the team total Over in 35 of its previous 54 home games, so consider this a contrarian play on the Under.

    Pick: Under 8 Runs (-105)

    Arizona Diamondbacks (+134) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-158) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)

    The Diamondbacks upset the Dodgers as +164 moneyline underdogs in Game 1. Perhaps we should not have been surprised, given Clayton Kershaw’s poor career postseason numbers and the fact that Merrill Kelly did not allow a run in two of his four starts against Los Angeles in the regular season. Now Arizona looks to take a 2-0 series lead behind ace Zac Gallen, who is pitching on four days rest.

    Four days’ rest has been Gallen’s best split in his career, as he has a .594 winning percentage, 2.82 ERA, and 0.972 WHIP in 50 such career starts. Those numbers are much better than his .517 winning percentage, 3.43 ERA, and 1.202 WHIP on five days’ rest and .556 winning percentage, 3.82 ERA, and 1.263 WHIP with six or more days of rest. As long as Gallen can pitch a clean first inning (his Game 2 start against the Brewers was his 11th time in 116 games where he allowed two-plus runs in the first inning), he should go on to have an effective outing.

    Gallen is opposed by Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller, who is making his first career postseason start. As such, Miller may be removed before he faces the Diamondbacks lineup a second time, but he should be effective while on the rubber, as he pitched to a 0.98 WHIP over his final seven regular season starts. Miller is backed by a bullpen that finished the regular season with the lowest ERA, WHIP, and HR/9 since June 21 and ranked third in Win Probability Added in that span. Thus, do not be swayed by Clayton Kershaw’s terrible outing, where he allowed six hits in eight batters with an average exit velocity of 105.2 mph, as this game will be much more low-scoring.

    The Under is 48-37 in Arizona’s last 85 games (+12.45 units, 14% ROI), and we are backing that trend again tonight.

    Pick: Under 8 Runs (+100)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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