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Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/19)

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Both league championship games are on, and they’re both very important. In each of these series, a team has two wins, and they can heavily swing the series in their favor if they can set up an elimination game. Let’s analyze how these games will go tonight.

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Thursday's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Phillies (-132) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+112)  | O/U 9 (-115/-105)

The Phillies haven't asked Ranger Suarez for extended starts, and he's done well in keeping them competitive. He had 8.2 innings in two NLDS starts, only allowing one run, and the Phillies won both games. He saw the Diamondbacks twice this year; in the first start, he went 5.2 innings, allowing five earned. In the second, he went seven scoreless, and that one was in Arizona. This year, he felt more comfortable on the road, with a 2.75 ERA compared to 5.45 at home.

The rookie Brandon Pfaadt may not go long in his start either. He's pitched just seven innings in two playoff starts; in the first against the Brewers, he was out after 2.2 and allowed three earned. In his last one against the Dodgers, he had 4.2 scoreless innings. Pfaadt will have the advantage as the Phillies have no experience against him.

It's interesting that the D-Backs would elect to start a rookie who's 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in a pivotal game. The biggest advantage for Arizona is their ballpark, as just 84 home runs were hit at Chase Field, the fourth-lowest in the league. That's why with a total set at nine, I like the under.

Pick: Under 9 (-105)

Houston Astros (+102) at Texas Rangers (-120)  | O/U 9.5 (-114/-108)

The Astros picked up a much-needed win to avoid the 0-3 hole, but the Rangers could set up an elimination game with a victory. Andrew Heaney will get the start, and against the Astros, he's had mixed results; He has two starts where he went five scoreless innings and two where he allowed six earned in 9.2 total innings. Also, there are mixed results where the Rangers are 2-2 in those, and he's seen a lot of run support.

Jose Uriqudy struggled in his first run as a starter this year, with a 5.20 in six starts. He went IL and missed over three months, and in his return, he spent most of the time in the bullpen. He has some experience against Texas but hasn't seen them in 2023, and this is a different team than in previous years.

We're seeing the power come out with 21 runs in the last two games, and in Heaney's four starts, we have seen the total hit the over three times. This is a high run total, but I expect it to hit with this pitching matchup.

Pick: Over 9 (-114)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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