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Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/18)

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The Texas Rangers are on the verge of taking command of their best-of-seven ALCS against the Houston Astros, as they hold a 2-0 series lead after winning the first two games at Minute Maid Park by a combined 7-4. Per MLB's Sarah Langs, teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series have won those series 84% of the time (75-14), while teams that have won the first two games on the road in a best-of-seven have won 90% of the time (26-3). 

What wager catches our eye most ahead of ALCS Game 3?

    Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Houston Astros (+110) at Texas Rangers (-130) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122) 

    The Rangers have been dominant during their current seven-game winning streak (all playoff wins), as their +23 run differential is tied with this year's Philadelphia Phillies squad for the sixth-best through the first seven games of a single postseason in MLB history, per Sarah Langs. However, there is too much unknown about how Rangers’ righty Max Scherzer will pitch, given that his last start was over a month ago (on September 12). Thus, instead of a moneyline play, the better value lies with the Over.

    Scherzer has spent the last five weeks on the IL with a teres major strain in his right shoulder. Even though he has gone 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA for Texas since being acquired from the New York Mets, Scherzer has battled several injuries this year, which raised speculation that his latest injury would be season-ending. Scherzer threw 69 pitches in a simulated start a few days ago, but asking Mad Max to quiet an offense that posted a 122 wRC+, .805 OPS, 9.1% walk rate, and 18.5% strikeout rate from August 1 to the end of the regular season is a tall task.

    Opposing Scherzer is Cristian Javier, who has not allowed a run in his previous 11 innings. However, Javier has just a 26.1% ground ball rate (which ranks in the first percentile), and though he has gone 21 consecutive innings without allowing a home run, the Rangers hit an AL-best 143 home runs at home this season, 19 more than any other team. Thus, we expect some regression from Javier, whose .443 xSLG this year was the worst of his career, while Texas slugged an MLB-best .495 at home. The Rangers should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths, as Javier walked five batters in his lone postseason start this season against the Minnesota Twins, and Texas had the second-highest walk rate of any AL team.

    We would not put anyone off a moneyline wager on Houston, as it has won each of its last eight games as road underdogs following a loss. In addition, the Astros have the second-best record (33-11) against the run line as underdogs of +101 to +149 dating back to last season, per Inside Edge. However, the Over has cashed in the previous four games between these AL West rivals at Globe Life Field, and we expect another high-scoring affair tonight.

    Pick: Over 9.5 (+100)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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