Navigate

Top MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/4)

by |

The first day of the Wild Card round of the Major League Baseball playoffs featured a little bit of everything. The Texas Rangers took advantage of the Tampa Bay Rays’ shoddy defense, the Minnesota Twins snapped an 18-game postseason losing streak, the Arizona Diamondbacks produced the only upset of the day, while the Philadelphia Phillies took their first step towards repeating as National League champions.

What is in store today with the four losing teams’ seasons on the line in Game 2?

    Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Texas Rangers (+128) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-152) | O/U 8 (-110/-110) 

    The Rays were never in Game 1 since they did not muster any runs, but they would have had a much better chance if they played better defensively. Tampa Bay made a franchise postseason record four errors, and the Rangers scored their four runs on a sacrifice fly, wild pitch, single, and throwing error.

    Tampa Bay won 53 games at home this season, tied for the most in the majors, and we do not expect it to be swept out of the playoffs. Zach Eflin ranked sixth among qualified pitchers with a 23.8% K-BB% in the second half of the season, and he is coming off career bests in innings pitched, ERA, WHIP, FIP, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage. We expect him to outduel Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi, who pitched to a 7.18 ERA over his final seven regular season starts and never recorded more than 15 outs in any of his six September starts. Eovaldi allowed two-plus home runs in three of those outings, and if he does not give the team a long outing, he will tax a bullpen that threw the sixth-most innings in September while ranking in the bottom eight in BABIP in that span.

    The Rays won six of their last seven regular season home series, and we expect them to force a decisive Game 3 on Thursday behind a starting pitcher that went 3-0 in five September appearances.

    Pick: Rays Moneyline (-152)

    Toronto Blue Jays (+124) vs. Minnesota Twins (-146) | O/U 8 (-102/-120)

    The Toronto Blue Jays have been swept out of the Wild Card round in each of their last two playoff appearances, and if they want to avoid the same fate today, they need to find offense in a hurry.

    Toronto had more strikeouts (seven) than hits (six) in Game 1, and went just 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position. In the Blue Jays' last five postseason games (all losses), they have combined to score 13 runs, have a team OPS of .624, have batted .189 with runners in scoring position, and have struck out 45 times. It does not help that their two biggest bats, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have combined for two extra-base hits in 42 postseason plate appearances, per Sportsnet Stats.  

    Toronto should struggle again offensively against Twins righty Sonny Gray, who led the league with a 2.83 FIP and 0.4 HR/9 rate. Gray's 5.4 WAR (second in the AL) is tied for his second-best ever in a season, and he finished seventh and third in the Cy Young voting in the other two seasons where his WAR was that high. 

    We also expect a strong outing from Blue Jays right Jose Berrios, who had ERAs of 3.53 or lower in four of the last five months. Berrios struggled in August with a 1-3 record and 5.53 ERA, and posted a 7.6 K/9 rate. However, he found his swing-and-miss stuff again in a big way in September, recording seven-plus strikeouts in four of five starts. We may not see many balls in play from a Twins offense that had MLB's worst strikeout rate (27.3%) against right-handed pitchers at home this year. 

    In all, Toronto ranked second in the AL in ERA (3.78) and third in strikeout percentage (25%), while Minnesota’s starting pitchers ranked first in the majors in strikeout percentage and second in WHIP. All of that adds up to what should be a low-scoring affair today.

    Pick: Under 8 Runs (-120)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


    Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

    BettingPros App