Top MLB Wild Card Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (Padres vs. Mets)
There’s only one MLB game tonight.
The Guardians snuck by the Rays in two extremely low-scoring games to earn an ALDS spot. Meanwhile, the Mariners slugged their way past the Toronto Blue Jays in two games to reach the next round.
Finally, the Phillies shut out the Cardinals last night to earn their NLDS spot against the Braves.
So, therefore, we’re left with one matchup tonight, between the Mets and Padres. Here are our best bets for this do-or-die Wild Card game between the MLB’s most exciting National League teams.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
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Top MLB Wild Card Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (10/9)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
The New York Mets will have a home-field advantage heading into tonight’s Game 3 Wild Card matchup between the Mets and Padres.
Chris Bassitt will take the hill for the Mets. He finished the regular season with a 15-9 record after throwing 181.2 innings. The right-hander struck out 167 and had an ERA of 3.42 to go along with a WHIP of 1.14.
However, in the last 30 days, Bassitt has struggled. He’s got an xFIP of 5.25 over the previous 30 days. Bassitt has also struck out under 17% of batters faced while walking 9.5%.
Still, his BABIP is low at .232 over the last month. He’s also induced 50% of grounders while allowing under 17% of line drives when balls are hit into play over the same time frame.
Like the other Mets starters, Bassitt has allowed many extra-base hits to both sides of the plate. Lefties have a wOBA of .337 with an ISO of .179 in the last month, while righties have a .200 ISO. These aren’t incredibly high numbers, but they are still below-average numbers from Bassitt.
He’ll face a Padres lineup that has struggled to hit for power over the last month against righties. San Diego has much more success hitting home runs this weekend. But overall, the projected lineup has a .131 ISO and wOBA of .287 over the last 30 days. Only Juan Soto is hitting consistent power against righties over that time frame.
On the other hand, Joe Musgrove also has a higher xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s holding an xFIP of 4.57 in the previous month, despite having a 2.93 ERA in the regular season.
Musgrove has struck out 28.6% of batters in that 30-day time frame but has walked 8% while rarely earning ground balls. The right-hander has been good against lefties but has allowed a .345 wOBA and ISO of .213 to righties over his last 50 plate appearances.
The Mets figure to have Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Tomas Nido batting from the right side in tonight’s game. Alonso has been the hottest hitter for the Mets, hitting a .303 ISO and wOBA of .433 in his last 79 plate appearances against righties.
New York has better numbers offensively, hitting a .180 ISO and wOBA of .365 collectively as a projected lineup in the last month. They’ve also hit 24.5% of line drives against righties as a unit in the previous 30 days.
This season, in home games, Chris Bassitt has a 2.95 ERA compared to his 4.00 ERA on the road. He’s earned plenty of strikeouts at home and has limited home runs in Citi Field.
The projected lineup for the Mets looks better on paper, and Bassitt figures to give the Mets an excellent outing. I’ll ride with the Mets and the under in tonight’s game.
Bet: Mets (-140 at DraftKings )
Bet: Under 6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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