Top NBA Betting Picks for Friday, October 2nd

Game 1 of the NBA Finals brought us the injury bug, but only the Miami Heat were bitten. Down Goran Dragic after a plantar fascia tear, and most likely Bam Adebayo too after a neck strain. Jimmy Butler is going to play banged-up, and this situation isn’t ideal versus a LeBron-led team. 

The Lakers won Game 1 handily, 116-98, and Game 2 is heavily in the Lakers’ favor as they open as nine-point favorites.

Here are my top NBA betting plays for October 2nd, 2020. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.

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Anthony Davis To Score 30 Points and Lakers Win (+140)

• Davis has scored 27 or more points in six-straight games
• Davis averaged 31.3 points per game in the WCF
• Davis averages 29.1 points per game in 16 postseason games
• Davis has averaged 29.2 points per game in his last 10 games

Anthony Davis has been on a scoring tear for the Lakers and led the team in scoring for the 10th time in 16 postseason games. Davis led Game 1 of the NBA Finals with 34 points in 38 minutes and 11-of-21 (52.4%) shooting. Davis now has the liberty of facing a Heat rotation without their best interior player in Game 2, after Bam Adebayo suffered a neck strain. 

The Heat center is doubtful for Game 2, and regardless if he plays or not, Davis is a threat to score 30 once again. Davis averaged 29.5 points per game in the two meetings with Miami during the regular-season going for 26 and 33 points apiece. His 34 points in Game 1 were impressive, and whether or not he plays 38 minutes or more will be a concern if there’s another blowout. 

Davis has played eight games of 38 minutes or fewer in the postseason, and he’s averaged 32.7 points per game. He’s scored 30 or more in five of those eight games, and without Adebayo, Davis should be clear for another 30-piece.

Lakers 1H -5.5 (-115)

We covered the two-point spread in Wednesday’s article and won the LeBron double-double, and the Lakers win bet too. So, we’re back to the drawing board, and everything has skyrocketed after Game 1. Game 2 will be an entirely different series with all the injuries, making me wary of the full-game spread even though I expect a comfortable Lakers win. One thing we do know is L.A. can score against Miami with or without Adebyo and Dragic.

The Lakers lead the postseason with 61.5 points per game in the first half and 31.6 in the first quarter. L.A. is the only team to average 30 points in the opening quarter. L.A. went over their first quarter and first half total in Game 1, easily, but not without some sweat. Miami jumped out to a 25-12 lead before the Lakers stormed back to win the quarter and cover at 31-28. The first half final was 65-48, and before you knew it, the game was over.

The Lakers owning a 4.1 first-quarter margin and 7.3 first half, both ranking first overall in the postseason, gives me confidence backing them again. Only two-of-12 players had a negative plus-minus for the Lakers, and for the Heat, only two-of-10 players outside of Dragic finished with a positive plus-minus.

The series may very well be too, and the spread at -9 is very tempting. Miami is the best ATS and S.U. squad in the postseason at 12-4 in both, but without Adebayo and Dragic, it’s hard to imagine them keeping it close. I’ll probably search for a live in-game spread that’s a tad bit lower if Miami hangs around out the gate, but we know L.A. is going to run its course in the first 24 minutes.

L.A. has now led 11-of-16 postseason games by halftime and nine of the last 11 overall. Let’s go Lake Show once again!

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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive or follow him @VaughnDalzell.